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Definition-consistent measurement of exchange market pressure

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  • Klaassen, Franc
  • Jager, Henk

Abstract

Currencies can be under severe pressure, but in a managed exchange rate regime that is not fully visible via the change in the exchange rate. The literature has proposed a way to measure such exchange market pressure (EMP) indirectly, by adding interest rate changes and forex interventions to the exchange rate change. We demonstrate that this measure is not consistent with the definition of EMP and develop a new measure that is consistent. This is first derived within the commonly used monetary exchange rate model. Then we generalize the analysis by avoiding the use of an exchange rate model. We find that the interest rate should not be taken in the first-difference form used so far, but rather in level form and relative to the interest rate chosen if the country had no exchange rate objective. Applications on the European Monetary System and East Asian crises confirm that this improvement is highly relevant in practice.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 74-95

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:1:p:74-95

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Asian crisis ERM crisis Exchange market pressure Exchange rate regime Interest rate differential Generalized Taylor rule;

References

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Cited by:
  1. Martin Feldkircher & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Exchange Market Pressures during the Financial Crisis: A Bayesian Model Averaging Evidence," Working Papers 332, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).

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