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Exchange Market Pressure in Central Europe: An Application of the Girton-Roper Model

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Author Info
Stavarek, Daniel
Dohnal, Marek

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Abstract

This paper applies the Girton-Roper model of exchange market pressure (EMP) on four Central European economies (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) over the period 1995-2008. The results suggest that there is a strong negative relation between domestic credit and EMP in all countries. We also found evidence of positive effect of domestic income on EMP in most of the countries. The paper reveals that EMP in the Czech Republic and Hungary was mostly absorbed by changes of exchange rate while changes in reserves absorbed EMP in Slovakia. The levels of EMP estimated do not pose a significant threat for fulfilment of the exchange rate stability convergence criterion.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 15744.

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Date of creation: 15 Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15744

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Related research
Keywords: exchange market pressure; Girton-Roper model; euro-candidate countries;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. M. Idrees Khawaja, 2007. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:31, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Priya Mathur, 1999. "An Exchange Market Pressure Model for India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 127-148, July.
  4. Weymark, Diana N., 1995. "Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 273-295, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Interest rate transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the selected EMU candidate countries," MPRA Paper 14072, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2009. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Pentecost, Eric J. & Van Hooydonk, Charlotte & Van Poeck, Andre, 2001. "Measuring and estimating exchange market pressure in the EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 401-418, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Stavarek, Daniel, 2008. "Exchange Market Pressure in Central European Countries from the Eurozone Membership Perspective," MPRA Paper 12079, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2006. "Identifying And Dating The Episodes Of Speculative Pressures Against The Singapore Dollar," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 51(02), pages 113-133. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Shiva, Reza, 1998. "A method of detecting whether a central bank engages in the black market for foreign exchange: Evidence from Iran," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 97-103, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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