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Investing in Arms to Secure Water

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  • Janmaat, John A
  • Ruijs, Arjan

Abstract

Where nations depend on resources originating outside their borders, such as river water, some believe that the resulting international tensions may lead to conflict. Homer-Dixon (1999) and Toset et al. (2000) argue such conflict is most likely between riparian neighbours, with a militarily superior downstream 'leader' nation. In a two stage stochastic game, solutions involving conflict are more common absent a leader, where a pure strategy equilibria may not exist. When upstream defensive expenditures substitute for water using investments, a downstream leader may induced an arms race to increase downstream water supplies. Water scarcity may not be a cause for war, but may cause a buildup in arms that can make any conflict between riparian neighbours more serious.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10667.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10667

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  1. Heng-fu Zou, 1995. "A dynamic model of capital and arms accumulation," CEMA Working Papers 80, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Erik Ansink & Arjan Ruijs, 2007. "Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements," Working Papers 2007.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. Antoine Soubeyran & Agnes Tomini, 2012. "Water Shortages and Conflict," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(2), pages 279-297.
  3. Ansink, Erik & Weikard, Hans-Peter, 2009. "Contested water rights," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 247-260, June.

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