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Investing in Arms to Secure Water

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Author Info
Janmaat, John A
Ruijs, Arjan

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Abstract

Where nations depend on resources originating outside their borders, such as river water, some believe that the resulting international tensions may lead to conflict. Homer-Dixon (1999) and Toset et al. (2000) argue such conflict is most likely between riparian neighbours, with a militarily superior downstream 'leader' nation. In a two stage stochastic game, solutions involving conflict are more common absent a leader, where a pure strategy equilibria may not exist. When upstream defensive expenditures substitute for water using investments, a downstream leader may induced an arms race to increase downstream water supplies. Water scarcity may not be a cause for war, but may cause a buildup in arms that can make any conflict between riparian neighbours more serious.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10667.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10667

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
F51 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games

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  1. LaCivita, Charles J. & Frederiksen, Peter C., 1991. "Defense spending and economic growth An alternative approach to the causality issue," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 117-126, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Paul C. Missios & Charles Plourde, 1996. "The Canada-European Union Turbot War: A Brief Game Theoretic Analysis," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 22(2), pages 144-150, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Rosegrant, Mark W., 1997. "Water resources in the twenty-first century: challenges and implications for action," 2020 vision discussion papers 20, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  5. Dakurah, A. Henry & Davies, Stephen P. & Sampath, Rajan K., 2001. "Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries: A causality analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 651-658, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. S. Brock Blomberg, 1994. "Growth, political instability and the defense burden," Research Paper 9420, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  7. Dinar, Ariel & Wolf, Aaron, 1994. "Economic potential and political considerations of regional water trade: The Western Middle East example," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 335-356, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gong, Liutang & Zou, Heng-fu, 2003. "Military spending and stochastic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 153-170, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. John Janmaat, 2005. "Ultimatums and Tantrums: A Resource Sharing Experiment," Experimental 0512004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Shieh, Jhy-yuan & Lai, Ching-chong & Chang, Wen-ya, 2002. "The impact of military burden on long-run growth and welfare," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 443-454, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Skaperdas, S., 1991. "Cooperation, Conflict And Power In The Absence Of Property Rights," Papers 90-91-06a, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
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  12. Zou, Heng-fu, 1995. "A dynamic model of capital and arms accumulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 371-393. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Erik Ansink & Arjan Ruijs, 2008. "Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 249-266, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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