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Measuring Bank Contagion in Europe Using Binary Spatial Regression Models

Author

Listed:
  • Raffaella Calabrese

    (Essex Business School, University of Essex)

  • Johan A. Elkink

    (University College Dublin)

  • Paolo Giudici

    (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia)

Abstract

The recent European sovereign debt crisis clearly illustrates the importance of measuring the contagion effects of bank failures. Indeed, to better understand and monitor contagion risk, the European Central Bank is assuming the supervision of the largest banks in each of the member states. We propose a measure of contagion risk based on the spatial autocorrelation parameter of a binary spatial autoregressive model. Using different specifications of the interbank connectivity matrix and of the determinants of bank failures, we estimate the contagion parameter for banks within the Eurozone, between 1996 and 2012. We provide evidence of high levels of systemic risk due to contagion.

Suggested Citation

  • Raffaella Calabrese & Johan A. Elkink & Paolo Giudici, 2014. "Measuring Bank Contagion in Europe Using Binary Spatial Regression Models," DEM Working Papers Series 096, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0096
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    4. Meier, Samira & Rodriguez Gonzalez, Miguel & Kunze, Frederik, 2021. "The global financial crisis, the EMU sovereign debt crisis and international financial regulation: lessons from a systematic literature review," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Chen, Yi-Pei & Chen, Yu-Lun & Chiang, Shu-Hen & Mo, Wan-Shin, 2023. "Determinants of connectedness in financial institutions: Evidence from Taiwan," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    6. A.F. Shorikov & A.S. Filippova & V.A. Tyulyukin, 2020. "Optimal Adaptive Control of Employees Number and Sales System of the Bank," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 19(3), pages 348-369.
    7. März, Steven & Stelk, Ines & Stelzer, Franziska, 2022. "Are tenants willing to pay for energy efficiency? Evidence from a small-scale spatial analysis in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    8. Jong Wook Lee & So Young Sohn, 2021. "Evaluating borrowers’ default risk with a spatial probit model reflecting the distance in their relational network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-11, December.

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    Keywords

    Contagion risk; spatial autoregressive models; European banks; binary data.;
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