How useful is the Marginal Expected Shortfall for the measurement of systemic exposure? A practical assessment
AbstractWe explore the practical relevance from a supervisor's perspective of a popular market-based indicator of the exposure of a financial institution to systemic risk, the marginal expected shortfall (MES). The MES of an institution can be defined as its expected equity loss when the market itself is in its left tail. We estimate the dynamic MES recently proposed by Brownlees and Engle (2011) for a panel of 65 large US banks over the last decade and a half. Running panel regressions of the MES on bank characteristics, we first find that the MES can be roughly rationalized in terms of standard balance sheet indicators of bank financial soundness and systemic importance. We then ask whether the cross section of the MES can help to identify ex ante, i.e. before a crisis unfolds, which institutions are the more likely to suffer the most severe losses ex post, i.e. once it has unfolded. Unfortunately, using the recent crisis as a natural experiment, we find that standard balance-sheet metrics like the tier one solvency ratio are better able than the MES to predict equity losses conditionally to a true crisis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 348.
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
MES; systemic risk; tail correlation; balance sheet ratios; panel.;
Other versions of this item:
- Idier, Julien & Lamé, Gildas & Mésonnier, Jean-Stéphane, 2013. "How useful is the marginal expected shortfall for the measurement of systemic exposure? A practical assessment," Working Paper Series 1546, European Central Bank.
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-11-14 (Banking)
- NEP-RMG-2011-11-14 (Risk Management)
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