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Rationing Social Contact During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmission Risk and Social Benefits of US Locations

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  • Benzell, Seth G.
  • Collis, Avinash
  • Nicolaides, Christos

    (University of Cyprus)

Abstract

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, some types of stores and gathering places have been shut down while others remain open. The decision to shut down one type of location and leave another open constitutes a judgement about the relative danger and benefits of those locations. Using location data from a large sample of smartphones, nationally representative consumer preference surveys, and government statistics, we measure the relative transmission risk benefit and social cost of closing about thirty different location categories in the US. Our categories include types of shops, entertainments, and public spaces. Our main analysis ranks twenty-six categories by those which should face stricter regulation via dominance across eight dimensions of risk and importance and through composite indexes. We find that from February to March, there were larger declines in visits to locations that our measures imply should be closed first. We hope this analysis will help policymakers decide how to reopen their economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Benzell, Seth G. & Collis, Avinash & Nicolaides, Christos, 2020. "Rationing Social Contact During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmission Risk and Social Benefits of US Locations," OSF Preprints d64vm, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:d64vm
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/d64vm
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    Cited by:

    1. Achilleas Psyllidis & Fábio Duarte & Roos Teeuwen & Arianna Salazar Miranda & Tom Benson & Alessandro Bozzon, 2023. "Cities and infectious diseases: Assessing the exposure of pedestrians to virus transmission along city streets," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(9), pages 1610-1628, July.
    2. Michael E. Darden & David Dowdy & Lauren Gardner & Barton H. Hamilton & Karen Kopecky & Melissa Marx & Nicholas W. Papageorge & Daniel Polsky & Kimberly A. Powers & Elizabeth A. Stuart & Matthew V. Za, 2022. "Modeling to inform economy‐wide pandemic policy: Bringing epidemiologists and economists together," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1291-1295, July.
    3. Tyler Atkinson & Jim Dolmas & Christoffer Koch & Evan F. Koenig & Karel Mertens & Anthony Murphy & Kei-Mu Yi, 2020. "Mobility and Engagement Following the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak," Working Papers 2014, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. John (Jianqiu) Bai & Erik Brynjolfsson & Wang Jin & Sebastian Steffen & Chi Wan, 2021. "Digital Resilience: How Work-From-Home Feasibility Affects Firm Performance," NBER Working Papers 28588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Panu Poutvaara & Madhinee Valeyatheepillay & Panu Poutvaara, 2020. "Covid-19 Pandemic: Challenges and a Way Forward," EconPol Policy Reports 30, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Andersen, Torben M. & Schröder, Philipp J. H. & Svarer, Michael, 2020. "Designing Reopening Strategies in the Aftermath of COVID-19 Lockdowns: Some Principles with an Application to Denmark," IZA Policy Papers 158, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Bruno Marques & Jacqueline McIntosh & Chitrakala Muthuveerappan & Krzysztof Herman, 2022. "The Importance of Outdoor Spaces during the COVID-19 Lockdown in Aotearoa—New Zealand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Anindya Ghose & Beibei Li & Meghanath Macha & Chenshuo Sun & Natasha Ying Zhang Foutz, 2020. "Trading Privacy for the Greater Social Good: How Did America React During COVID-19?," Papers 2006.05859, arXiv.org.
    9. Binzhe Wang & Matias Williams & Fábio Duarte & Siqi Zheng, 2022. "Demand for social interactions: Evidence from the restaurant industry during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 830-857, June.
    10. Mathijs de Vaan & Saqib Mumtaz & Abhishek Nagaraj & Sameer B. Srivastava, 2021. "Social Learning in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Community Establishments’ Closure Decisions Follow Those of Nearby Chain Establishments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4446-4454, July.
    11. Kawaguchi, Kohei & Kodama, Naomi & Tanaka, Mari, 2021. "Small business under the COVID-19 crisis: Expected short- and medium-run effects of anti-contagion and economic policies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    12. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    13. Marina Azzimonti & Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri & Mark Ponder, 2020. "Pandemic Control in ECON-EPI Networks," NBER Working Papers 27741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Mohammad Akbarpour & Cody Cook & Aude Marzuoli & Simon Mongey & Abhishek Nagaraj & Matteo Saccarola & Pietro Tebaldi & Shoshana Vasserman & Hanbin Yang, 2020. "Socioeconomic Network Heterogeneity and Pandemic Policy Response," Working Papers 2020-75, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    15. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Ganslmeier, Michael & Poutvaara, Panu, 2020. "Public Attention and Policy Responses to COVID-19 Pandemic," IZA Discussion Papers 13427, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Chen, Kexin & Pun, Chi Seng & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2023. "Efficient social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic: Integrating economic and public health considerations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 84-98.
    17. Chen, Ruoyu & Zhang, Min & Zhou, Jiangping, 2023. "Jobs-housing relationships before and amid COVID-19: An excess-commuting approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    18. Xuan Zhang & Haoying Han & Lin Qiao & Jingwei Zhuang & Ziming Ren & Yang Su & Yiping Xia, 2022. "Emotional-Health-Oriented Urban Design: A Novel Collaborative Deep Learning Framework for Real-Time Landscape Assessment by Integrating Facial Expression Recognition and Pixel-Level Semantic Segmentat," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-20, October.
    19. Robin L. Dillon & Vicki M. Bier & Richard Sheffield John & Abdullah Althenayyan, 2023. "Closing the Gap Between Decision Analysis and Policy Analysts Before the Next Pandemic," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 109-132, June.
    20. Nan Li & Muzi Chen & Difang Huang, 2022. "How Do Logistics Disruptions Affect Rural Households? Evidence from COVID-19 in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    21. Noszczyk, Tomasz & Gorzelany, Julia & Kukulska-Kozieł, Anita & Hernik, Józef, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the importance of urban green spaces to the public," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    22. Morteza Maleki & Mohsen Bahrami & Monica Menendez & Jose Balsa-Barreiro, 2022. "Social Behavior and COVID-19: Analysis of the Social Factors behind Compliance with Interventions across the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-26, November.
    23. Till Baldenius & Nicolas Koch & Hannah Klauber & Nadja Klein, 2023. "Heat increases experienced racial segregation in the United States," Papers 2306.13772, arXiv.org.
    24. Sarina Dass & Daniel T. O’Brien & Alina Ristea, 2023. "Strategies and inequities in balancing recreation and COVID exposure when visiting green spaces," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(5), pages 1161-1177, June.

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