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A Small Global Forecasting Model

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  • David Rae
  • David Turner

Abstract

This paper describes the OECD’s new small global forecasting model for the three main OECD economic regions: the United States, the euro area, and Japan. The key variables – which include output, inflation, the trade balance, and import prices – are driven by monetary and fiscal policy, exchange rates, and world demand. The projections from the model are used as a starting point to help animate the early stages of the OECD’s forecasting round. The model is essentially a demand-side model with a particular focus on the impact of global linkages and the transmission of influences between regions ... Ce document décrit le nouveau petit modèle global de prévision pour les trois principales régions de l'OCDE : les États-Unis, la zone euro et le Japon. Les variables-clés, qui incluent la production, l'inflation, la balance commerciale et les prix d'importation, sont déterminées par la politique fiscale et monétaire, les taux de change et la demande mondiale. Les prévisions du modèle sont utilisées comme un point de depart pour stimuler la dicusssion lors des premières étapes de l'exercice de prévision de l'OCDE. Ce modèle est essentiellement un modèle de demande qui se concentre particulièrement sur l'impact des liens globaux et sur la transmission des influences entre regions ...

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/628640803664
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 286.

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Date of creation: 08 Feb 2001
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:286-en

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Keywords: OECD; forecasting; macroeconomic model; international;

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Cited by:
  1. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
  2. Jonas Dovern & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2006. "Macroeconomic Aspects of Structural Labor Market Reforms in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1295, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2004. "Moderate upswing in Euroland," Kiel Discussion Papers 410, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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