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Early warnings of inflation in India

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Author Info

  • Bhattacharya, Rudrani

    ()
    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Patnaik, Ila

    ()
    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Shah, Ajay

    ()
    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

In India, year-on-year percentage changes of price indexes are widely used as the measure of inflation. In terms of monthly data, each observation of a one-year change in inflation is the sum of twelve one month changes. This suggests that better information about inflationary pressures can be obtained using point-on-point monthly changes. This requires seasonal adjustment. We apply standard seasonal adjustment procedures in order to obtain a point-on-point seasonally adjusted monthly time-series of inflation in India. In three interesting high inflation episodes { 1994-95, 2007 and 2008 - we find that this data yields a faster and better understanding of inflationary pressures.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in its series Working Papers with number 08/54.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:08/54

Note: Working Paper 54, 2008
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Web page: http://www.nipfp.org.in

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  1. Harvey, Andrew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Riani, Marco, 1997. "The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 354-68, July.
  2. Bell, William R & Hillmer, Steven C, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 291-320, October.
  3. Granger, Clive W J, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 335-36, October.
  4. Burman, J Peter, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 325-27, October.
  5. Akaike, Hirotugu, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 321-22, October.
  6. Dagum, Estela Bee & Laniel, Normand J D, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 328-32, October.
  7. Fase, Martin M G, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 333-34, October.
  8. Ansley, Craig F & Wecker, William E, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series: Comment: On Dips in the Spectrum of a Seasonally Adjusted Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 323-24, October.
  9. Maravall, Agustin, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 337-39, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Paunic, Alida, 2009. "I did it my way," MPRA Paper 17547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Nadhanael G V & Sitikantha Pattanaik, 2010. "Measurement of Inflation in India: Issues and Associated Challenges for the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Working Papers id:2822, eSocialSciences.
  3. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2010. "Asia Confronts the Impossible Trinity," ADBI Working Papers 204, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  4. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2009. "The difficulties of the Chinese and Indian exchange rate regimes," Working Papers 09/62, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

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