Investigating Business Cycle Synchronization in West Africa
AbstractThis paper contributes to the discussion on the long term sustainability of the embryonic second monetary union in Africa, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). We analyse the level of economic and monetary integration in West Africa by analysing the degree of growth cycle synchronisation between five candidate countries over the past thirty years. Our empirical approach improves on the standard Pearson Correlation between trend and cyclical components of GDP by analyzing a measure of co-movement at higher frequencies between computed z-scores for all possible pairings of the candidate countries. Our results indicate a lack of a consistent pattern of synchronized growth cycles, which raises concerns about the economic sustainability of the WAMZ, as it implies that members may face significant stabilisation costs. Some policy implications are discussed.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division in its series Working Papers with number 2011/01.
Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Web page: http://www.ntu.ac.uk/nbs
Business cycles; monetary unions;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
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