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Inflation dynamics in central and eastern European countries

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  • Rob Ackrill and Simeon Coleman

Abstract

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) raises important questions about policy context and design within member states. As EMU membership rises, so it embraces an increasingly diverse range of countries notwithstanding, the qualifying convergence criteria. Given the importance of convergent inflation to the sustainability of EMU with a common monetary policy, understanding the dynamics of inflation is of particular policy importance. This study uses fractional integration methods to analyse inflation dynamics in 12 Central and Eastern European countries. We find evidence of mean-reversion in only seven countries, with different speeds of reversion across countries. Furthermore, employing a recently developed time-series approach, we uncover the existence of multiple statistically distinct I(0)/I(1) regime states in almost all the countries. This raises the possibility that, as and when these countries join EMU, ECB monetary policy aimed at euro wide price stability could potentially transmit quite differently through these economies, resulting in heterogeneous and diverging inflation outcomes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division in its series Working Papers with number 2012/01.

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Date of creation: Mar 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nbs:wpaper:2012/01

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Web page: http://www.ntu.ac.uk/nbs

Related research

Keywords: Inflation; Fractional integration; Multiple changes in persistence.;

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References

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  1. Noriega, Antonio E. & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2009. "The dynamics of persistence in US inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 168-172, November.
  2. Coleman, Simeon, 2010. "Inflation persistence in the Franc zone: Evidence from disaggregated prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 426-442, March.
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  7. Franta, Michal & Saxa, Branislav & Šmídková, Katerina, 2007. "Inflation persistence: euro area and new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 0810, European Central Bank.
  8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  9. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Harrison, Barry, 2010. "Inflation persistence and nonlinearities in Central and Eastern European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 81-83, February.
  10. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Discrete Fourier Transforms of Fractional Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1243, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Robert Taylor & Stephen Leybourne & David Harvey, 2004. "Modified Tests for a Change in Persistence," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 64, Econometric Society.
  12. Mockaitis, Audra I., 2005. "The race to EU integration: How many and how high are the hurdles?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 195-199, June.
  13. Carlos P. Barros & Luis Gil‐Alana & Roman Matousek, 2011. "Fractional Integration of Nominal Exchange Rates: Evidence from CEECs in the Light of EMU Enlargement," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 77-92, 02.
  14. Dufrénot, Gilles & Lardic, Sandrine & Mathieu, Laurent & Mignon, Valérie & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2008. "Explaining the European exchange rates deviations: Long memory or non-linear adjustment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 207-215, July.
  15. Robert Ackrill & Adrian Kay, 2010. "WTO Regulations and Bioenergy Sustainability Certification – Synergies and Possible Conflicts," Working Papers 2010/9, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  16. Vitor Leone & Bruce Philp, 2010. "Surplus-Value And Aggregate Concentration In The Uk Economy, 1987-2009," Working Papers 2010/10, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
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  19. Simeon Coleman, 2011. "Inflation dynamics and poverty rates: regional and sectoral evidence for Ghana," Working Papers 2011/04, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
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Cited by:
  1. Otavio Ribeiro de Medeiros and Vitor Leone, 2012. "Multiple Changes in Persistence vs. Explosive Behaviour: The Dotcom Bubble," Working Papers 2012/02, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  2. Zsolt Darvas & Balazs Varga, 2013. "Inflation persistence in central and eastern European countries," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1327, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.

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