Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

On the Duration of Trade

Contents:

Author Info

  • Tibor Besedes
  • Thomas J. Prusa

Abstract

This paper employs survival analysis to study the duration of US imports. We find that the median duration of exporting a product to the US is very short, on the order to two to four years. Our results also indicate that there is negative duration dependence meaning that if a country is able to survive in the exporting market for the first few years it will face a very small probability of failure and will export the product for a long period of time. This result holds across countries and industries. We find that our results are not only robust to aggregation but are strengthened by aggregation. That is, as we aggregate from product level trade data to SITC industry level trade data the estimated survival increases. We rank countries by their survival experience and show that our rankings are strongly correlated with the rankings in Feenstra and Rose (2002), implying that product cycle followers also experience particularly short duration.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9936.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9936.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Besedes, Tibor and Thomas J. Prusa. "Ins, Outs, And The Duration Of Trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, 2006, v39(1,Feb), 266-295.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9936

Note: ITI
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Peter K. Schott, 2001. "Do Countries Specialize?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm173, Yale School of Management.
  2. James E. Rauch, 1996. "Networks versus Markets in International Trade," NBER Working Papers 5617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  4. Pakes, A. & Ericson, R., 1990. "Empirical Implications Of Alternative Models Of Firm Dynamics," Papers 594, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  5. Marcus Asplund & Volker Nocke, 2003. "Firm Turnover in Imperfectly Competitive Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-010, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  6. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
  7. Stephen Redding, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 210, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Proudman, James & Redding, Stephen J, 1998. "Persistence and Mobility in International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 1802, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Robert C. Feenstra & Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "Putting Things In Order: Trade Dynamics And Product Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 369-382, August.
  10. Deardorff, Alan V., 1984. "Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 467-517 Elsevier.
  11. Gagnon, Joseph E & Rose, Andrew K, 1995. "Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive Is the Product Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 229-48, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Tibor Besedeš, 2013. "The Role of NAFTA and Returns to Scale in Export Duration," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 59(2), pages 306-336, June.
  2. Deborah Swenson, 2005. "Outsourcing Price Decisions: Evidence from U.S. 9802 Imports," NBER Working Papers 11184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Deborah L. Swenson, 2004. "Overseas Assembly and Country Sourcing Choices," NBER Working Papers 10697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Tibor Besedes & Thomas J. Prusa, 2004. "Surviving the U.S. Import Market: The Role of Product Differentiation," NBER Working Papers 10319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ana Fernandes & Heiwai Tang, 2012. "Learning from Neighbors’ Export Activities: Evidence from Exporters’ Survival," Development Working Papers 337, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 16 Jul 2012.
  6. Dick Nuwamanya Kamuganga, 2012. "What Drives Africa's Export Diversification?," IHEID Working Papers 15-2012, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  7. Echazu, Luciana, 2009. "Product differentiation, firm heterogeneity and international trade: Exploring the Alchian-Allen effect," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 95-101, June.
  8. Albornoz, Facundo & Calvo Pardo, Héctor F. & Corcos, Gregory & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2012. "Sequential exporting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 17-31.
  9. Dr.Ayako OBASHI, 2009. "Resiliency of Production Networks in Asia: Evidence from the Asian Crisis," Working Papers DP-2009-21, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  10. Changchun Hua & Douglas H. Brooks, 2010. "Asian Trade and Global Linkages," Working Papers id:3094, eSocialSciences.
  11. Deborah L. Swenson, 2007. "Competition and the location of overseas assembly," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 155-175, February.
  12. Stirbat, Liviu & Record, Richard & Nghardsaysone, Konesawang, 2013. "Determinants of export survival in the Lao PDR," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6301, The World Bank.
  13. Debaere, Peter & Mostashari, Shalah, 2010. "Do tariffs matter for the extensive margin of international trade? An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 163-169, July.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9936. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.