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Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive Is the Product Cycle?

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  • Gagnon, Joseph E
  • Rose, Andrew K

Abstract

This paper looks for dynamic patterns in international trade flows using comprehensive multilateral data for six countries, disaggregated to the four-digit SITC level. The purpose of the paper is to compare predictions of persistent trade balances generated by theories of international trade, such as factor-proportions, with more dynamic theories such as the product cycle. Little evidence is found of dynamic trade behavior at the industry level between 1962 and 1990 for Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Rather, goods that begin the sample in surplus (deficit) almost always remain in surplus (deficit) throughout the sample. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 47 (1995)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 229-48

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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:47:y:1995:i:2:p:229-48

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Cited by:
  1. Tibor Besedes & Thomas J. Prusa, 2003. "On the Duration of Trade," NBER Working Papers 9936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Xu, Xinpeng, 1999. "Do Stringent Environmental Regulations Reduce the International Competitiveness of Environmentally Sensitive Goods? A Global Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1215-1226, July.
  3. Yue, Changjun & Hua, Ping, 2002. "Does comparative advantage explains export patterns in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 276-296.
  4. Colin Carter & Xianghong Li, 2004. "Changing trade patterns in major OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(14), pages 1501-1511.
  5. Carolan, Terrie & Singh, Nirvikar, 2004. "Time Series Analysis Of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3f18v4sj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  6. Carolan, Terrie & Mora, Jesse & Singh, Nirvikar, 2012. "Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," MPRA Paper 37124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Peter K. Schott, 2001. "Do Rich and Poor Countries Specialize in a Different Mix of Goods? Evidence from Product-Level US Trade Data," NBER Working Papers 8492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Zhu, Susan Chun, 2005. "Can product cycles explain skill upgrading?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 131-155, May.
  9. Carolan, Terrie & Singh, Nirvikar & Talati, Cyrus, 1998. "The composition of U.S.-East Asia trade and changing comparative advantage," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 361-389.
  10. An, Galina & Iyigun, Murat F., 2004. "The export technology content, learning by doing and specialization in foreign trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 465-483, December.
  11. Taylor, J. Edward & Dyer, George A. & Yunez-Naude, Antonio, 2005. "Disaggregated Rural Economywide Models for Policy Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1671-1688, October.
  12. Carter, Colin A. & Li, Xianghong, 1999. "Economic Reform And The Changing Pattern Of China'S Agricultural Trade," Working Papers 11957, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

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