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Abstract

International trade patterns at the product level are surprisingly dynamic. The majority of trade relationships exist for just a few, often only one to three, years. In this paper, I examine empirically the duration in German import trade at the 8-digit product level from 1995 to 2005. I find that survival probabilities are affected by exporter characteristics, product type and market structure. Specifically, I show that the duration of exporting a product to Germany is longer for products obtained from countries that are economically large and geographically close to Germany; for products with large trade value and a low elasticity of substitution; and for trade pairs that command a large share of the German import market and are characterized by two-way trade.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2007/wp-cesifo-2007-08/cesifo1_wp2085.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2085.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2085

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Related research

Keywords: survival; product; relationship; pattern;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
• C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
• F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
• F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other

References

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   • Nitsch, Volker, 2009. "Die Another Day: Duration in German Import Trade," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute of Economics (VWL) 34444, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
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