Physician Income Expectations and Specialty Choice
AbstractIn spite of the important role of income expectations in economics, economists know little about how people actually form these expectations. We use a unique data set that contains the explicit income expectations of medical students over a 25-year time period to examine how students form income expectations. We examine whether students condition their expectations on their own ability, contemporaneous physician income, and the ex post income of physicians in their medical school cohort. We then test whether a model that uses the students' explicit income expectations to predict their specialty choices has a better fit than a model that assumes income expectations are formed statically, and a model that bases income expectations on ex post income.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8536.
Date of creation: Oct 2001
Date of revision:
Note: EFG HC LS
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2001-10-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-HEA-2001-10-16 (Health Economics)
- NEP-MIC-2001-10-16 (Microeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1997.
"Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-121744, Tilburg University.
- Das, Marcel & van Soest, Arthur, 1997. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 137-154, January.
- Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1995. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Discussion Paper 1995-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Robert J. Willis & Sherwin Rosen, 1978.
"Education and Self-Selection,"
NBER Working Papers
0249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Manski, C.F., 1991.
"Adolescent Econometricians : How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling,"
9110, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Adolescent Econometricians: How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling?," NBER Chapters, in: Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education, pages 43-60 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frank A. Sloan, 1970. "Lifetime earnings and physicians' choice of specialty," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 24(1), pages 47-56, October.
- Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
- Sean Nicholson, 2002. "Physician Specialty Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(4), pages 816-847, October.
- Massimiliano BRATTI & Luca MANCINI, 2003.
"Differences in Early Occupational Earnings of UK Male Graduates by Degree Subject: Evidence from the 1980-1993 USR,"
189, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Bratti, Massimiliano & Mancini, Luca, 2003. "Differences in Early Occupational Earnings of UK Male Graduates by Degree Subject: Evidence from the 1980-1993 USR," IZA Discussion Papers 890, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Kristin J. Kleinjans & Jinkook Lee, 2006. "The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter?," Economics Working Papers 2006-05, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Sean Nicholson, 2005.
"How Much Do Medical Students Know About Physician Income?,"
Journal of Human Resources,
University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1).
- Sean Nicholson, 2004. "How Much Do Medical Students Know About Physician Income?," NBER Working Papers 10542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anchor, John R. & Fiserová, Jana & Mars[iota]ková, Katerina & Urbánek, Václav, 2011. "Student expectations of the financial returns to higher education in the Czech Republic and England: Evidence from business schools," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 673-681, August.
- Schweri, Juerg & Hartog, Joop & Wolter, Stefan C., 2011.
"Do students expect compensation for wage risk?,"
Economics of Education Review,
Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 215-227, April.
- Schweri, Jürg & Hartog, Joop & Wolter, Stefan C., 2009. "Do Students Expect Compensation for Wage Risk?," IZA Discussion Papers 4069, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Jürg Schweri & Stefan C. Wolter & Joop Hartog, 2008. "Do Students Expect Compensation for Wage Risk?," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0011, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).
- Sean Nicholson & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2002. "Physician Income Prediction Errors: Sources and Implications for Behavior," NBER Working Papers 8907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.