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Physician Income Expectations and Specialty Choice

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  • Sean Nicholson
  • Nicholas S. Souleles

Abstract

In spite of the important role of income expectations in economics, economists know little about how people actually form these expectations. We use a unique data set that contains the explicit income expectations of medical students over a 25-year time period to examine how students form income expectations. We examine whether students condition their expectations on their own ability, contemporaneous physician income, and the ex post income of physicians in their medical school cohort. We then test whether a model that uses the students' explicit income expectations to predict their specialty choices has a better fit than a model that assumes income expectations are formed statically, and a model that bases income expectations on ex post income.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8536.

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Date of creation: Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8536

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  1. Frank A. Sloan, 1970. "Lifetime earnings and physicians' choice of specialty," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 24(1), pages 47-56, October.
  2. Sean Nicholson, 2002. "Physician Specialty Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(4), pages 816-847, October.
  3. Manski, C.F., 1991. "Adolescent Econometricians : How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling," Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems 9110, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  4. Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1997. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-121744, Tilburg University.
  5. Julian R. Betts, 1996. "What Do Students Know about Wages? Evidence from a Survey of Undergraduates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 27-56.
  6. Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
  7. Robert J. Willis & Sherwin Rosen, 1978. "Education and Self-Selection," NBER Working Papers 0249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Sean Nicholson & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2002. "Physician Income Prediction Errors: Sources and Implications for Behavior," NBER Working Papers 8907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kristin J. Kleinjans & Jinkook Lee, 2006. "The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter?," Economics Working Papers, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus 2006-05, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Schweri, Juerg & Hartog, Joop & Wolter, Stefan C., 2011. "Do students expect compensation for wage risk?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 215-227, April.
  4. Mazza, Jacopo & van Ophem, Hans & Hartog, Joop, 2013. "Unobserved heterogeneity and risk in wage variance: Does more schooling reduce earnings risk?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 323-338.
  5. Sean Nicholson, 2005. "How Much Do Medical Students Know About Physician Income?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1).
  6. Massimiliano BRATTI & Luca MANCINI, 2003. "Differences in Early Occupational Earnings of UK Male Graduates by Degree Subject: Evidence from the 1980-1993 USR," Working Papers, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali 189, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  7. Anchor, John R. & Fiserová, Jana & Mars[iota]ková, Katerina & Urbánek, Václav, 2011. "Student expectations of the financial returns to higher education in the Czech Republic and England: Evidence from business schools," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 673-681, August.

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