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Physician Income Expectations and Specialty Choice

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Author Info
Sean Nicholson
Nicholas S. Souleles

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Abstract

In spite of the important role of income expectations in economics, economists know little about how people actually form these expectations. We use a unique data set that contains the explicit income expectations of medical students over a 25-year time period to examine how students form income expectations. We examine whether students condition their expectations on their own ability, contemporaneous physician income, and the ex post income of physicians in their medical school cohort. We then test whether a model that uses the students' explicit income expectations to predict their specialty choices has a better fit than a model that assumes income expectations are formed statically, and a model that bases income expectations on ex post income.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8536.

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Date of creation: Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8536

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  1. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Adolescent Econometricians: How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling?," NBER Chapters, in: Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education, pages 43-60 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  2. Willis, Robert J & Rosen, Sherwin, 1979. "Education and Self-Selection," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages S7-36, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Sean Nicholson, 2002. "Physician Specialty Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(4), pages 816-847, October. [Downloadable!]
  5. repec:att:wimass:199110 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Das, Marcel & van Soest, Arthur, 1997. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 137-154, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Frank A. Sloan, 1970. "Lifetime earnings and physicians' choice of specialty," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 24(1), pages 47-56, October.
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  1. Jürg Schweri & Stefan C. Wolter & Joop Hartog, 2008. "Do Students Expect Compensation for Wage Risk?," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0011, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Bratti, Massimiliano & Mancini, Luca, 2003. "Differences in Early Occupational Earnings of UK Male Graduates by Degree Subject: Evidence from the 1980-1993 USR," IZA Discussion Papers 890, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kristin J. Kleinjans & Jinkook Lee, 2006. "The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter?," Economics Working Papers 2006-05, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sean Nicholson & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2002. "Physician Income Prediction Errors: Sources and Implications for Behavior," NBER Working Papers 8907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sean Nicholson, 2004. "How Much Do Medical Students Know About Physician Income?," NBER Working Papers 10542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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