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A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft

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  • C. Lanier Benkard
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    Abstract

    This paper develops a multi-agent dynamic model of the commercial aircraft industry and then uses that model to analyze industry pricing, industry performance, and optimal industry policy. In the model, firms are differentiated in their products and cost structure, and entry, exit, prices, and quantity sold are endogenously determined in dynamic equilibrium. Re ecting the focus of the paper, demand and supply are modeled structurally, while investment is modeled in reduced form. The model utilizes a cost model of commercial aircraft production developed and estimated in a previous paper (Benkard (2000)), and a discrete choice model of commercial aircraft demand to determine static profits. I find that many unusual aspects of the aircraft data, such as high concentration and pricing below the level of static marginal cost, are explained by this model. The model also replicates the stochastic evolution of the industry well. Many of these properties could not be explained with a static model. These results provide support for the structural dynamic modeling approach in general. I also find that the unconstrained Markov perfect equilibrium is quite efficient from a social perspective, providing only 9% less welfare on average than a social planner would obtain, but that the Markov perfect equilibrium shifts a substantial amount of welfare from consumers to producers. Finally, I provide simulation evidence that an anti-trust policy in the form of a concentration restriction would be welfare reducing with high probability.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7710.

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    Date of creation: May 2000
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    Publication status: published as Benkard, C. Lanier. "A Dynamic Analysis Of The Market For Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," Review of Economic Studies, 2004, v71(248,Jul), 581-611.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7710

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    Cited by:
    1. Hinloopen, Jeroen & Smrkolj, Grega & Wagener, Florian, 2013. "From mind to market: A global, dynamic analysis of R&D," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2729-2754.
    2. repec:dgr:uvatin:2011139 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Irwin, Douglas & Pavcnik, Nina, 2003. "Airbus versus Boeing Revisited: International Competition in the Aircraft Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 3876, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. J. Levin & P. Bajari, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," 2004 Meeting Papers 579, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Park, Sangin, 2003. "Semiparametric instrumental variables estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 381-399, February.
    6. Jeroen Hinloopen & Grega Smrkolj & Florian Wagener, 2013. "In Defense of Trusts: R&D Cooperation in Global Perspective," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-045/II, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Mar 2014.
    7. C. Lanier Benkard, 2000. "Learning and Forgetting: The Dynamics of Aircraft Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1034-1054, September.
    8. repec:dgr:uvatin:2013045 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard, 2001. "Demand Estimation With Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach," Working Papers 01010, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    10. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard, 2001. "Demand Estimation With Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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