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Airbus versus Boeing Revisited: International Competition in the Aircraft Market

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  • Douglas A. Irwin
  • Nina Pavcnik

Abstract

This paper examines international competition in the commercial aircraft industry. We estimate a discrete choice, differentiated products demand system for wide-body aircraft and examine the Airbus-Boeing rivalry under various assumptions on firm conduct. We then use this structure to evaluate two trade disputes between the United States and European Union. Our results suggest that the aircraft prices increased by about 3 percent after the 1992 U.S. -- E.U. agreement on trade in civil aircraft that limits subsidies. This price hike is consistent with a 7.5 percent increase in firms' marginal costs after the subsidy cuts. We also simulate the impact of the future entry of the Airbus A-380 super-jumbo aircraft on the demand for other wide-bodied aircraft, notably the Boeing 747. We find that the A-380 could reduce the market share of the 747 by up to 14 percent in the long range wide-body market segment (depending upon the discounts offered on the A-380), but would reduce the market for Airbus's existing wide-bodies by an even greater margin.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8648.

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Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Publication status: published as Irwin, Douglas A. and Nina Pavcnik. "Airbus Versus Boeing Revisited: International Competition In The Aircraft Market," Journal of International Economics, 2004, v64(2,Dec), 223-245.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8648

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  1. Paul Krugman & Alasdair Smith, 1994. "Empirical Studies of Strategic Trade Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug94-1, octubre-d.
  2. Brander, James A. & Spencer, Barbara J., 1985. "Export subsidies and international market share rivalry," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 83-100, February.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-112, University of California at Berkeley.
  4. Hendel, Igal, 1999. "Estimating Multiple-Discrete Choice Models: An Application to Computerization Returns," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 423-46, April.
  5. Benkard, C. Lanier, 2000. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," Research Papers 1636, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
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  8. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1988. "Industrial Policy and International Competition in Wide-Bodied Jet Aircraft," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, pages 45-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Nina Pavcnik, 2002. "Trade Disputes in the Commercial Aircraft Industry," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 733-751, 05.
  10. Maggi, Giovanni, 1996. "Strategic Trade Policies with Endogenous Mode of Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 237-58, March.
  11. Irwin, Douglas A & Klenow, Peter J, 1994. "Learning-by-Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1200-1227, December.
  12. Klepper, Gernot, 1990. "Entry into the market for large transport aircraft," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 775-798, June.
  13. Damien NEVEN & Paul SEABRIGHT, 1995. "European Industrial Policy: The Airbus Case," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9509, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  14. James Levinsohn & Steven Berry & Ariel Pakes, 1999. "Voluntary Export Restraints on Automobiles: Evaluating a Trade Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 400-430, June.
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  17. Gernot Klepper, 1994. "Industrial Policy in the Transport Aircraft Industry," NBER Chapters, in: Empirical Studies of Strategic Trade Policy, pages 101-130 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. C. Lanier Benkard, 2000. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," NBER Working Papers 7710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Hiroshi Ohashi, 2004. "Learning by Doing, Export Subsidies, and Industry Growth: Japanese Steel in the 1950s and 1960s," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-280, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  2. Wu, Xin-wang & Zhu, Quan-tao & Sun, Laixiang, 2012. "On equivalence between Cournot competition and the Kreps–Scheinkman game," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 116-125.
  3. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné & Horst Raff, 2009. "Exchange-Rate Misalignments in Duopoly: The Case of Airbus and Boeing," Kiel Working Papers 1488, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Friberg, Richard & Ganslandt, Mattias, 2006. "An empirical assessment of the welfare effects of reciprocal dumping," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 1-24, September.
  5. Stephen Martin, 2012. "Market Structure and Market Performance," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 87-108, March.
  6. Victor Fernandez-Blanco & Luis Orea & Juan Prieto-Rodriguez, 2013. "Endogeneity and measurement errors when estimating demand functions with average prices: an example from the movie market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1477-1496, June.
  7. Garcia Pires, Armando José, 2006. "Losers, Winners and Prisoner's Dilemma in International Subsidy Wars," CEPR Discussion Papers 5979, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Anders, Christoph, 2010. "Auswirkungen des Leasings auf Transaktionskosten," Leasing - Wissenschaft & Praxis, Universität zu Köln, Forschungsinstitut für Leasing, vol. 8(2), pages 71-88.
  9. Gianmaria Martini & Davide Scotti, 2009. "Potere di mercato e distribuzione dei profitti nella filiera del trasporto aereo," Working Papers 0906, Department of Economics and Technology Management, University of Bergamo.
  10. Amit Khandelwal, 2010. "The Long and Short (of) Quality Ladders," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1450-1476.
  11. T.Huw Edwards, 2009. "Regulatory Protection When Firms Move First," Discussion Paper Series 2009_19, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Nov 2009.
  12. Varshavsky, Leonid, 2010. "Methodological basis of modeling evolution of markets of products with long life cycle: a study of the civil aircrafts’ market," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 20(4), pages 53-74.
  13. Mackay, Daniel, 2011. "Estimating the impact of investment tax credits on aircraft demand," MPRA Paper 32767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Berrittella, Maria & Franca, Luigi La & Mandina, Vito & Zito, Pietro, 2007. "Modelling strategic alliances in the wide-body long-range aircraft market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 139-148.
  15. Tombak, Mihkel M., 2006. "Strategic asymmetry," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 339-350, November.

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