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Understanding Young Women's Marriage Decisions: The Role of Labor and Marriage Market Conditions

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Author Info
Francine D. Blau
Lawrence M. Kahn
Jane Waldfogel

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Abstract

Using the 1970, 1980 and 1990 Censuses, we investigate the impact of labor and marriage market conditions on the incidence of marriage of young women (age 16-24). We employ a two-stage methodology. First, across individuals, marriage is regressed on personal characteristics and MSA indicators, separately by race and education group. Second, the first-stage MSA effects are regressed on MSA-level labor and marriage market conditions and welfare benefits using cross-section and fixed effects models, including both first and second difference equations. Better female labor markets, worse female marriage markets and worse male labor markets are found to lower marriage rates for whites in all education groups. Results for these variables for blacks are sensitive to estimation technique, although stronger results are obtained for an older age group (25-34). While welfare benefits have a negative effect in cross-sectional analyses, the association becomes considerably weaker in fixed effects specifications.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7510.

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Date of creation: Jan 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7510

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J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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  1. Bound, John & Holzer, Harry J, 1993. "Industrial Shifts, Skills Levels, and the Labor Market for White and Black Males," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 387-96, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. R. A. Moffitt, . "The Effect of Welfare on Marriage and Fertility: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1153-97, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
  3. David Neumark & Sanders D. Korenman, 1988. "Does marriage really make men more productive?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Timothy Bartik, 1993. "Who Benefits from Local Job Growth: Migrants or the Original Residents?," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 297-311, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Moffitt, Robert, 1990. "The effect of the U.S. welfare system on marital status," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 101-124, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Daniel, K., 1991. "Does Marriage Make Men More Productive?," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 92-2, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
  7. Timothy Besley & Anne Case, 1994. "Unnatural Experiments? Estimating the Incidence of Endogenous Policies," NBER Working Papers 4956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Richard B. Freeman, 1990. "Employment and Earnings of Disadvantaged Young Men in a Labor Shortage Economy," NBER Working Papers 3444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jaeger, David A, 1997. "Reconciling the Old and New Census Bureau Education Questions: Recommendations for Researchers," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 300-309, July.
  10. Rebecca Blank, 1995. "Teen pregnancy: government programs are not the cause," Feminist Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 47-58, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ellwood, David T & Crane, Jonathan, 1990. "Family Change among Black Americans: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 65-84, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Blau, Francine D & Kahn, Lawrence M, 1981. "Causes and Consequences of Layoffs," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 270-96, April.
  13. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 2000. "The Craft of labormetrics," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 53(3), pages 363-380, April.
  14. H. W. Hoynes, . "Does welfare play any role in female headship decisions?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1078-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Topel, Robert H, 1986. "Local Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages S111-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sherman, Jennifer, 2005. "Men Without Sawmills: Masculinity, Rural Poverty, And Family Stability," Working Papers 18905, Oregon State University, Rural Poverty Research Center (RPRC). [Downloadable!]
  2. David S. Loughran & Julie M. Zissimopoulos, 2004. "Are There Gains to Delaying Marriage? The Effect of Age at First Marriage on Career Development and Wages," Working Papers 207, RAND Corporation Publications Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. David Johnson & Guyonne Kalb, 2002. "Economic Analyses of Families: Existing Research Findings," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n27, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ayako Kondo, 2008. "Female Labor Market Conditions and Family Formation," Discussion Papers 0809-08, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gould, Eric D & Paserman, Marco Daniele, 2002. "Waiting for Mr Right: Rising Inequality and Declining Marriage Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 3388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes & Madeline Zavodny, 2002. "The impact of welfare reform on marriage and divorce," Working Paper 2002-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Dirk Bethmann & Michael Kvasnicka, 2005. "Paternal Uncertainty and the Economics of Mating, Marriage, and Parental Investment in Children," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-046, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Stephanie Aaronson, 2002. "The rise in lifetime earnings inequality among men," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Shanta Pandey & Jeoung-hee Kim, 2008. "Path to Poverty Alleviation: Marriage or Postsecondary Education?," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 166-184, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Julio Elías, 2003. "The Link between Unemployment and the Marriage Rate: Buenos Aires, Argentina," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 505-514. [Downloadable!]
  11. Robert Moffitt, 2002. "The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program," NBER Working Papers 8749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Teresa Mauldin & Yoko Mimura, 2007. "Marrying, Unmarrying, and Poverty Dynamics among Mothers with Children Living at Home," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 566-582, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Joe A. Stone & JoAnnaGray, . "Race Differences in Cohort Effects on Nonmarital Fertility in the United States," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-5, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  14. David S. Loughran, 2000. "Does Variance Matter? The Effect of Rising Male Inequality on Female Age at First Marriage," Working Papers 00-12, RAND Corporation Publications Department. [Downloadable!]
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