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The Effect of Welfare on Marriage and Fertility: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?

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R. A. Moffitt

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Abstract

The recent literature on the effects of welfare on marriage and fertility includes studies employing a wide variety of methodologies and data sets and covering different time periods. A majority of the studies show that welfare has a significantly negative effect on marriage or positive effect on fertility rather than none at all, and thus the current consensus is that the welfare system probably has some effect on these demographic outcomes. Considerable uncertainty surrounds this consensus because a sizable minority of the studies find no effect at all, because the magnitudes of the estimated effects vary widely, and because puzzling and unexplained differences exist across the studies by race and methodological approach. At present, and with the information provided in the studies, the source of these disparities cannot be determined. While a neutral weighing of the evidence still leads to the conclusion that the welfare system affects marriage and fertility, research needs to be conducted to resolve the conflicting findings.

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Paper provided by University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty in its series Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers with number 1153-97.

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Handle: RePEc:wop:wispod:1153-97

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Schultz, T. Paul, 1998. "Eroding the economic foundations of marriage and fertility in the United States," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 391-413, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Matthews, S. & Ribar, D. & Wilhelm, M., 1995. "The Effects of Economic Conditions and Access to Reproductive Health Services on State Abortion and Birth Rates," Papers 4-95-15, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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  3. A. S. Yelowitz, . "Will Extending Medicaid to Two-Parent Families Encourage Marriage?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1118-97, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
  4. Darity, William, Jr & Myers, Samuel L, Jr, 1983. "Changes in Black Family Structure: Implications for Welfare Dependency," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 59-64, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Winegarden, C R, 1988. "AFDC and Illegitimacy Ratios: A Vector-Autoregressive Model," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(12), pages 1589-1601, December.
  6. Danziger, Sheldon, et al, 1982. "Work and Welfare as Determinants of Female Poverty and Household Headship," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(3), pages 519-34, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Schultz, T.P., 1993. "Marital Status and Fertility in the United States: Welfare and Labor Market Effects," Papers 703, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  8. Moffitt, Robert, 1990. "The effect of the U.S. welfare system on marital status," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 101-124, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Southwick, Lawrence, Jr, 1978. "The Effect of Welfare Programs on Family Stability," Review of Social Economy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 19-40, April.
  10. Lundberg, Shelly & Plotnick, Robert D, 1995. "Adolescent Premarital Childbearing: Do Economic Incentives Matter?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(2), pages 177-200, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. An, Chong-Bum & Haveman, Robert & Wolfe, Barbara, 1993. "Teen Out-of-Wedlock Births and Welfare Receipt: The Role of Childhood Events and Economic Circumstances," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 195-208, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. P. K. Robins & P. Fronstin, . "Welfare benefits and family-size decisions of never-married women," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1022-93, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
  13. Allen, Douglas W, 1993. "Welfare and the Family: The Canadian Experience," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages S201-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Rebecca M. Blank & Christine C. George & Rebecca A. London, 1994. "State Abortion Rates: The Impact of Policies, Providers, Politics, Demographics, and Economic Environment," NBER Working Papers 4853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. H. W. Hoynes, . "Does welfare play any role in female headship decisions?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1078-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Hutchens, Robert M, 1979. "Welfare, Remarriage, and Marital Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 369-79, June.
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  1. S. McLanahan & I. Garfinkel, . "The Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study: Questions, Design, and a Few Preliminary Results," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1208-00, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christina Paxson & Jane Waldfogel, 1999. "Work, Welfare, and Child Maltreatment," NBER Working Papers 7343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn & Jane Waldfogel, 2000. "Understanding Young Women's Marriage Decisions: The Role of Labor and Marriage Market Conditions," NBER Working Papers 7510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. R. Haveman & B. Wolfe, . "Welfare to Work in the U.S.: A Model for Other Nations?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1159-98, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
  5. Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn & Jane Waldfogel, 2002. "The Impact of Welfare Benefits on Single Motherhood and Headship of Young Women: Evidence from the Census," NBER Working Papers 9338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Wei-Yin Hu, 1999. "Marriage and Economic Incentives: Evidence from a Welfare Experiment," JCPR Working Papers 83, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  7. Ohinata, Asako, 2008. "Fertility Response to Financial Incentives-Evidence from the Working Families Tax Credit in the UK," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 851, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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