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Protectionist Threats and Foreign Direct Investment

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Author Info
Bruce A. Blonigen
Robert C. Feenstra

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Abstract

The recent literature on quid pro quo foreign direct investment (FDI) suggests that FDI may be induced by the threat of protection, and further, that FDI may be used as an instrument to defuse a protectionist threat. This paper uses a panel data set of 4-digit SIC level observations of Japanese manufacturing FDI into the United States in the 1980s to explore these hypotheses empirically. We find strong statistical support for the hypothesis that higher threats of protection lead to greater FDI flows, and post-regression simulations find that a rise in the expected probability of protection from five to ten percent means over a 30 percent rise in next-period FDI flows for an average industry. In addition, there is evidence that non- acquisition FDI by the Japanese had success in defusing the threat of an escape clause investigation in future periods.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5475.

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Date of creation: Mar 1996
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5475

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Moore, Michael O, 1992. "Rules or Politics? An Empirical Analysis of ITC Anti-dumping Decisions," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 449-66, July.
  2. Robert Baldwin & Jeffrey Steagall, 1994. "An analysis of ITC decisions in antidumping, countervailing duty and safeguard cases," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 290-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Goldberger, Arthur S, 1972. "Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of Regressions Containing Unobservable Independent Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Wendy L. Hansen & Thomas J. Prusa, 1996. "Cumulation and ITC Decision-Making: The Sum of the Parts is Greater Than the Whole," Departmental Working Papers 199422, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  5. Robert Staiger & Frank Wolak, 1994. "Measuring Industry Specific Protection: Antidumping in the United States," International Trade 9410004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 138-60, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jerry A. Hausman & Bronwyn H. Hall & Zvi Griliches, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," NBER Technical Working Papers 0017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Martin, Stephen, 1991. "Direct foreign investment in the United States," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-293, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gene Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1994. "Foreign Investment with Endogenous Protection," NBER Working Papers 4876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Dinopoulos, E. & Wong, K-Y., 1990. "Quid Pro Quo Foreign Investment And Policy Intervention," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 90-14, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  11. Robert Z. Lawrence, 1993. "Japan?s Low Levels of Inward Investment: The Role of Inhibitions on Acquisitions," NBER Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, pages 85-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  12. Coughlin, Cletus C & Terza, Joseph V & Khalifah, Noor Aini, 1989. "The Determinants of Escape Clause Petitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 341-47, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Froot, Kenneth A & Stein, Jeremy C, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-217, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Salvatore, Dominick, 1987. "Import penetration, exchange rates, and protectionism in the United States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 125-141. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Azrak, Paul & Wynne, Kevin, 1995. "Protectionism and Japanese direct investment in the United States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 293-305, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Robert Z. Lawrence, 1991. "Efficient or Exclusionist: The Import Behavior of Japanese Corporate Groups," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1991-1), pages 311-341. [Downloadable!]
  17. Finger, J M & Hall, H Keith & Nelson, Douglas R, 1982. "The Political Economy of Administered Protection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 452-66, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Hansen, Wendy L & Prusa, Thomas J, 1996. "Cumulation and ITC Decision-Making: The Sum of the Parts Is Greater Than the Whole," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 746-69, October.
  19. Bhagwati, Jagdish N & Dinopoulos, Elias & Wong, Kar-yiu, 1992. "Quid Pro Quo Foreign Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 186-90, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Takacs, Wendy E, 1981. "Pressures for Protectionism: An Empirical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 687-93, October.
  21. Grubaugh, Stephen G, 1987. "Determinants of Direct Foreign Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 149-52, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Xun, Lei & Awokuse, Titus, 2005. "The Determinants of US Outgoing FDI in the Food-Processing Sector," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19131, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  2. Bruce A. Blonigen & KaSaundra Tomlin & Wesley W. Wilson, 2001. "Tariff-jumping FDI and Domestic Firms’ Profits," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-5, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Jun 2002. [Downloadable!]
  3. Grether, Jean-Marie & de Melo, Jaime & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 1999. "Who determines Mexican trade policy?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2187, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Laura Resmini, 1999. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment into the CEECs: New Evidence from Sectoral Patterns," LICOS Discussion Papers 8399, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, K.U.Leuven. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Dimitri Mardas & George Papachristou & Nikos Varsakelis, 2008. "Public Procurement and Foreign Direct Investment Across France, Germany, Italy and the UK," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 183-193, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bruce A. Blonigen & Stephen E. Haynes, 1999. "Antidumping Investigations and the Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Antidumping Duties," NBER Working Papers 7378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bruce A. Blonigen & KaSaundra Tomlin & Wesley W. Wilson, 2002. "Tariff-jumping FDI and Domestic Firms’ Profits," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-23, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Jun 2002. [Downloadable!]
  8. Bruce A. Blonigen & Christopher J. Ellis & Dietrich Fausten, 2000. "Industrial Groupings and Strategic FDI: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bruce A. Blonigen & KaSaundra Tomlin & Wesley W. Wilson, 2002. "Tariff-jumping FDI and Domestic Firms' Profits," NBER Working Papers 9027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Robert C. Feenstra, . "Facts And Fallacies About Foreign Direct Investment," Department of Economics 98-04, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2000. "Tariff-Jumping Antidumping Duties," NBER Working Papers 7776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bruce A. Blonigen & Stephen E. Haynes, 2002. "Antidumping Investigations and the Pass-Through of Antidumping Duties and Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1044-1061, September. [Downloadable!]
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