Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks
Abstract
This paper examines the effect of exogenous shocks to savings on world capital markets. Using the exogenous shocks to US tax policy identified by Romer & Romer, we trace the impact of an exogenous shock to savings through the income accounting identities of the US and the rest of the world. We find that exogenous tax increases are only partially offset by changes in private savings (Ricardian equivalence is not complete). We also find that only a small amount of the resulting change in US saving is absorbed by increased domestic investment (contrary to Feldstein & Horioka). Almost half of the fiscal shock is transmitted abroad as an increase in the US current account. Positive shocks to US savings generate current account deficits and increases in investment in other countries in the world. We cannot reject that the shock is uniformly transmitted across countries with different currency regimes and different levels of development. The results suggest highly integrated world capital markets with rapid adjustment. In short we find that the US acts like a large open economy and the world acts like a closed economy.Download Info
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15113.Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15113
Note: EFG IFM ME
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Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- James Feyrer & Jay Shambaugh, 2012. "Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 95-114, May.
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-07-03 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-07-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2009-07-03 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
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