Why Aren't Developed Countries Saving?
AbstractNational saving rates differ enormously across developed countries. But these differences obscure a common trend, namely a dramatic decline over time. France and Italy, for example, saved over 17 percent of national income in 1970, but less than 7 percent in 2006. Japan saved 30 percent in 1970, but only 8 percent in 2006. And the U.S. saved 9 percent in 1970, but only 2 percent in 2006. What explains these international and intertemporal differences? Is it demographics, government spending, productivity growth or preferences? Our answer is preferences. Developed societies are placing increasing weight on the welfare of those currently alive, particularly contemporaneous older generations. This conclusion emerges from estimating two models in which society makes consumption and labor supply decisions in light of uncertainty over future government spending, productivity, and social preferences. The two models differ in terms of the nature of preference uncertainty and the extent to which current society can control future societies' spending and labor supply decisions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14580.
Date of creation: Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Note: AG ME PE POL PR
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jerry Green & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2006.
"On the General Relativity of Fiscal Language,"
Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
WP2006-036, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005.
"Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? – Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China,"
Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series
WP2005-009, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J Kotlikoff, 2006. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the US, EU, Japan and China," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch, & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner?—Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., E.U., Japan, and China," Working Papers wp102, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take us to Dinner? - Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., Eu, Japan and China," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-151, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
- Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 1999.
"- Heterogeneity In Capital And Skills In A Neoclassical Stochastic Growth Model,"
Working Papers. Serie AD
1999-21, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2001. "Heterogeneity in capital and skills in a neoclassical stochastic growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1367-1397, September.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994.
"Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
- Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September.
- Jonsson, Gunnar & Klein, Paul, 1996.
"Stochastic fiscal policy and the Swedish business cycle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 245-268, October.
- Jonsson, G. & Klein, P., 1995. "Stochastic Fiscal Policy and the Swedish Business Cycle," Papers 592, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Why aren't developed countries saving?
by UDADISI in UDADISI on 2012-08-02 01:09:00
by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2012-08-03 07:00:00
- The Best 10 Economics Papers of 2012
by UDADISI in UDADISI on 2012-12-13 22:44:00
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.