This paper reviews the major social and demographic forces influencing American fertility levels with the aim of predicting changes during the next three decades. Increases in the Hispanic population and in educational attainment are expected to have modest and offsetting effects on fertility levels. A cessation of the recent pattern of increasing ages at childbearing will at some point put upward pressure on period (but not cohort) fertility rates. Higher relative wages for women and better contraception have empowered women and fundamentally altered marriage and relations between the sexes. But women's childbearing has become less dependent upon stable relations with men, and educational differences in intended fertility have narrowed. One explanation of higher fertility in the U.S. than in other developed countries is that its institutions have adapted better to rising relative wages for women and the attendant increase in women's labor force participation.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
14498.
Length: Date of creation: Nov 2008 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14498
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Find related papers by JEL classification: H0 - Public Economics - - General H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
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