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The Future of American Fertility

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Author Info
Samuel H. Preston
Caroline Sten Hartnett
Abstract

This paper reviews the major social and demographic forces influencing American fertility levels with the aim of predicting changes during the next three decades. Increases in the Hispanic population and in educational attainment are expected to have modest and offsetting effects on fertility levels. A cessation of the recent pattern of increasing ages at childbearing will at some point put upward pressure on period (but not cohort) fertility rates. Higher relative wages for women and better contraception have empowered women and fundamentally altered marriage and relations between the sexes. But women's childbearing has become less dependent upon stable relations with men, and educational differences in intended fertility have narrowed. One explanation of higher fertility in the U.S. than in other developed countries is that its institutions have adapted better to rising relative wages for women and the attendant increase in women's labor force participation.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14498.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14498

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H0 - Public Economics - - General
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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  1. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2008. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Working Papers 14266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Larry E. Jones & Michele Tertilt, 2006. "An Economic History of Fertility in the U.S.: 1826-1960," NBER Working Papers 12796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tomas Frejka & Charles F. Westoff, 2006. "Religion, religiousness and fertility in the U.S. and in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-013, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2005. "The Baby Boom and Baby Bust," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 183-207, March. [Downloadable!]
  6. Francine D. Blau, 1997. "Trends in the Well-Being of American Women, 1970-1995," NBER Working Papers 6206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Shelly Lundberg & Robert A. Pollak, 2007. "The American Family and Family Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 3-26, Spring.
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  8. Melissa Schettini Kearney, 2002. "Is There an Effect of Incremental Welfare Benefits on Fertility Behavior? A Look at the Family Cap," NBER Working Papers 9093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2002. "The Power of the Pill: Oral Contraceptives and Women's Career and Marriage Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 730-770, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2007. "Long-Run Changes in the U.S. Wage Structure: Narrowing, Widening, Polarizing," NBER Working Papers 13568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Pierre-André Chiappori & Sonia Oreffice, 2008. "Birth Control and Female Empowerment: An Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(1), pages 113-140, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jacob Alex Klerman, 1999. "U.S. Abortion Policy and Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 261-264, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn, 2005. "Changes in the Labor Supply Behavior of Married Women: 1980-2000," NBER Working Papers 11230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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