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The Future of American Fertility

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  • Samuel H. Preston
  • Caroline Sten Hartnett
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    Abstract

    This paper reviews the major social and demographic forces influencing American fertility levels with the aim of predicting changes during the next three decades. Increases in the Hispanic population and in educational attainment are expected to have modest and offsetting effects on fertility levels. A cessation of the recent pattern of increasing ages at childbearing will at some point put upward pressure on period (but not cohort) fertility rates. Higher relative wages for women and better contraception have empowered women and fundamentally altered marriage and relations between the sexes. But women's childbearing has become less dependent upon stable relations with men, and educational differences in intended fertility have narrowed. One explanation of higher fertility in the U.S. than in other developed countries is that its institutions have adapted better to rising relative wages for women and the attendant increase in women's labor force participation.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14498.

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    Date of creation: Nov 2008
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    Publication status: published as The Future of American Fertility , Samuel H. Preston, Caroline Sten Hartnett. in Demography and the Economy , Shoven. 2011
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14498

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    Cited by:
    1. Hazan, Moshe & Zoabi, Hosny, 2011. "Do Highly Educated Women Choose Smaller Families?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 8590, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Adam Isen & Betsey Stevenson, 2010. "Women's Education and Family Behavior: Trends in Marriage, Divorce and Fertility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2940, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Leontine Alkema & Adrian Raftery & Patrick Gerland & Samuel Clark & François Pelletier & Thomas Buettner & Gerhard Heilig, 2011. "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 815-839, August.

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