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Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe

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Author Info
Francesco C. Billari (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
Hans-Peter Kohler (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

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Abstract

In this paper we conduct descriptive aggregate analyses to revisit the relation between low and lowest-low period fertility on the one, and cohort fertility and key fertility-related behaviors---such as leaving the parental home, marriage and female labor force participation---on the other side. First, we identify a systematic pattern of lowest-low fertility that is characterized by a rapid delay of childbearing, a low progression probability after the first child (but not particularly low levels of first-birth childbearing), and a ``falling behind´´ in cohort fertility at relatively late ages. Second, our analyses show that the cross-country correlations in Europe between the total fertility level on the one side, and the total first marriage rate, the proportion of extramarital births and the female labor force participation rate on the other side have reversed during the period from 1975 to 1999. At the end of the 1990s there is also no longer evidence that divorce levels are negatively associated with fertility levels. Based on these analyses we conclude that the emergence of lowest-low fertility during the 1990s has been accompanied by a disruption or even a reversal of many well-known patterns that have been used to explain cross-country differences in fertility patterns.

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Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2002-040.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-040

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Related research
Keywords: Europe; family formation; fertility;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Tomas Frejka & Gerard Calot, 2001. "Cohort Reproductive Patterns in the Nordic Countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(5), pages 125-186, November. [Downloadable!]
  2. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Francesco C. Billari & Piero Manfredi & Alessandro Valentini, 1999. "Macro-demographic effects of the transition to adulthood: multistate stable population theory and an application to Italy," MPIDR Working Papers WP-1999-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Francesco C. Billari & Chris Wilson, 2001. "Convergence towards diversity? Cohort dynamics in the transition to adulthood in contemporary Western Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-039, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S14-64, Part II, . [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Tomas Frejka & Gérard Calot, 2001. "Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low-Fertility Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 103-132. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bettio, Francesca & Villa, Paola, 1998. "A Mediterranean Perspective on the Breakdown of the Relationship between Participation and Fertility," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 137-71, March.
  8. Hans-Peter Kohler & Jere R. Behrman & Susan Cotts Watkins, 1999. "The structure of social networks and fertility decisions: evidence from S. Nyanza District, Kenya," MPIDR Working Papers WP-1999-005, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Tomas Kögel, 2001. "Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-034, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Adelina Comas-Herrera & Alessandra di Maio & Alessandro Pozzi & Concepció Patxot & Cristiano Gori & Heinz Rothgang & Joan Costa i Font & Linda Pickard & Raphael Wittenberg, . "How Does Demography affect Long-Term Care Expenditures Projections?," Studies on the Spanish Economy 231, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Henriette Engelhardt & Alexia Prskawetz, 2002. "On the changing correlation between fertility and female employment over space and time," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-052, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Klasen, Stephan & Launov, Andrey, 2003. "Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility Decline in the Czech Republic," IZA Discussion Papers 870, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Francesco C. Billari, 2004. "Becoming an Adult in Europe: A Macro(/Micro)-Demographic Perspective," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(2), pages 15-44, April. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michaela Potancokova & Boris Vano & Viera Pilinská & Danuša Jurcová, 2008. "Slovakia: Fertility between tradition and modernity," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(25), pages 973-1018, July. [Downloadable!]
  6. David Alich, 2007. "Differences between male and female fertility in Russia: an evaluation of basic pattern and data quality using the first wave of the Russian GGS," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-015, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Reanne Frank & Patrick Heuveline, 2005. "A cross-over in Mexican and Mexican-American fertility rates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 12(4), pages 77-104, March. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alessandra De Rose & Filomena Racioppi & Anna Laura Zanatta, 2008. "Italy: Delayed adaptation of social institutions to changes in family behaviour," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(19), pages 665-704, July. [Downloadable!]
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