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Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?

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Author Info
Tomas Kögel (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

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Abstract

Recent literature finds that in OECD countries the cross-country correlation between the total fertility rate and the female labor force participation rate, which until the beginning of the 1980s had a negative value, has since acquired a positive value. This result is (explicitly or implicitly) often interpreted as evidence for a changing sign in the time-series association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries. This paper shows that the time-series association between fertility and female employment does not demonstrate a change in sign. Instead, the reversal in the sign of the cross-country correlation is most likely due to a combination of two elements: First, the presence of unmeasured country-specific factors and, second, country-heterogeneity in the magnitude of the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment. However, the paper does find evidence for a reduction in the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment after about 1985.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2001-034.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-034

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Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

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Related research
Keywords: female employment; fertility;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

Cited by:
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  1. Sebastian Klüsener, 2009. "An alternative framework for studying the effects of family policies on fertility in the absence of individual-level data : a spatial analysis with small-scale macro data on Germany," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-027, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Patricia Apps & Ray Rees, 2005. "Gender, Time Use and Public Policy Over the Life Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 500, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Löfström, Åsa & Westerberg, Thomas, 2006. "Variations in Fertility - a Consequense of Other Factors Besides Love?," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 681, Umeå University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Tomáš Sobotka & Laurent Toulemon, 2008. "Overview Chapter 4: Changing family and partnership behaviour," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(6), pages 85-138, July. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christian Dudel, 2009. "The Demographic Dilemma: Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation and Future Growth in Germany 2007-2060," SOEPpapers 158, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). [Downloadable!]
  7. Robert Fenge & Volker Meier, 2004. "Are Family Allowances and Fertility-related pensions Siamese Twins?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Del Boca, Daniela & Pasqua, Silvia & Pronzato, Chiara, 2004. "Why Are Fertility and Women’s Employment Rates So Low in Italy? Lessons from France and the U.K," IZA Discussion Papers 1274, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  9. Henriette Engelhardt & Alexia Prskawetz, 2009. "A Pooled Time-Series Analysis on the Relation Between Fertility and Female Employment," European Demographic Research Papers 0501, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna. [Downloadable!]
  10. Rocio Sánchez-Mangas & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, . "Reconciling female labor participation and motherhood: the effect of benefits for working mothers," Studies on the Spanish Economy 195, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Vinod Mishra & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2006. "The Relationship Between Female Labour Force Participation And Fertility In G7 Countries: Evidence From Panel Cointegration And Granger Causality," Monash Economics Working Papers 13/06, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Anna Matysiak & Daniele Vignoli, 2006. "Fertility and women’s employment: a meta-analysis," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-048, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  13. Anne Gauthier, 2007. "The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 323-346, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Francesco C. Billari, 2004. "Becoming an Adult in Europe: A Macro(/Micro)-Demographic Perspective," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(2), pages 15-44, April. [Downloadable!]
  15. Jonathan Levie & Erkko Autio, 2008. "A theoretical grounding and test of the GEM model," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 235-263, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Robert Fenge & Volker Meier, 2003. "Pensions and Fertility Incentives," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Martin Dribe & Maria Stanfors, 2009. "Education, Work and Parenthood: Comparing the Experience of Young Men and Women in Sweden," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 32-42, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Robert Fenge & Volker Meier, 2009. "Are family allowances and fertility-related pensions perfect substitutes?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 137-163, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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