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Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low-Fertility Countries

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  • Tomas Frejka
  • Gérard Calot
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    Abstract

    This account reports on a project in progress that aims to obtain a comprehensive picture of contemporary fertility levels and trends in 27 low-fertility countries. Cohort analysis is applied to review the fertility experience of women born from the 1930s through the 1970s. This choice of dates ensures that not only completed fertility but also the fertility patterns of women in the midst of or near the onset of their reproductive period are examined. In most of the 27 countries, completed fertility of successive cohorts has been declining. It appears plausible that the trends discerned in the analysis will continue in the foreseeable future. For these trends to be reversed, women who are about to enter or who are in the midst of their reproductive periods would have to adopt fertility patterns markedly different from those of women born in the 1960s and 1970s. Copyright 2001 by The Population Council, Inc..

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by The Population Council, Inc. in its journal Population and Development Review.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 103-132

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:27:y:2001:i:1:p:103-132

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    Cited by:
    1. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Laurent Toulemon, 2005. "Does Postponement Explain the Trend to Later Childbearing in France?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 3(1), pages 83-107.
    2. Tomas Frejka & Gerard Calot, 2001. "Cohort Reproductive Patterns in the Nordic Countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(5), pages 125-186, November.
    3. Almudena Sevilla-Sanz & Jose Ignacio Gimenez, 2007. "Household Division of Labor, Partnerships and Children: Evidence from Europe," Economics Series Working Papers 333, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Dirk Konietzka, 2004. "Angleichung oder Verfestigung von Differenzen? Geburtenentwicklung und Familienformen in Ost- und Westdeutschland," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2004-025, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Liat Raz-Yurovich, 2012. "Normative and allocation role strain: role incompatibility, outsourcing, and the transition to a second birth in Eastern and Western Germany," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-024, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Tomas Frejka & Jean-Paul Sardon, 2006. "First birth trends in developed countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(6), pages 147-180, September.
    7. Mikko Myrskylä & Joshua R. Goldstein & Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, 2012. "New cohort fertility forecasts for the developed world," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    8. Mikko Myrskyla & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2011. "High development and fertility: fertility at older reproductive ages and gender equality explain the positive link," Working Papers 049, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    9. Tomas Frejka & Jean-Paul Sardon & Alain Confesson, 2004. "Fertility in Austria: Past, Present and the Near Future," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 35-56.
    10. Hans-Peter Kohler & Lisbeth B. Knudsen & Axel Skytthe & Kaare Christensen, 2002. "The fertility pattern of twins and the general population compared: evidence from Danish cohorts 1945-64," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-005, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. Marcantonio Caltabiano & Maria Castiglioni & Alessandro Rosina, 2009. "Lowest-Low Fertility: Signs of a recovery in Italy?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(23), pages 681-718, November.
    12. Hans-Peter Kohler & Lisbeth B. Knudsen & Axel Skytthe & Kaare Christensen, 2002. "The Fertility Pattern of Twins and the General Population Compared: Evidence from Danish Cohorts 1945-64," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(14), pages 383-408, May.
    13. Tomas Frejka & Jean-Paul Sardon, 2006. "Cohort birth order, parity progression ratio and parity distribution trends in developed countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-045, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, 2011. "Tempo and the TFR," Demography, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 841-861, August.
    15. Ian Dey & Fran Wasoff, 2010. "Another Child? Fertility Ideals, Resources and Opportunities," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 29(6), pages 921-940, December.
    16. Tomas Frejka & Jean-Paul Sardon, 2006. "First birth trends in developed countries: a cohort analysis," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    17. José A. Ortega & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    19. Tomas Frejka & Jean-Paul Sardon, 2007. "Cohort birth order, parity progression ratio and parity distribution trends in developed countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(11), pages 315-374, April.
    20. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144, March.
    21. FFF1Johan NNN1Surkyn & FFF2Ron NNN2Lesthaeghe, 2004. "Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe: An Update," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(3), pages 45-86, April.
    22. Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2002. "Crisis or adaptation reconsidered: a comparison of East and West German fertility patterns in the first six years after the ´Wende´," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-032, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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