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High development and fertility: fertility at older reproductive ages and gender equality explain the positive link

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  • Mikko Myrskyla
  • Hans-Peter Kohler
  • Francesco C. Billari

Abstract

A fundamental switch in the fertility—development relationship has occurred so that among highly developed countries, further socioeconomic development may reverse the declining fertility trend. Here we shed light on the mechanisms underlying this reversal by analyzing the links between development and age and cohort patterns of fertility, as well as the role of gender equality. Using data from 1975 to 2008 for over 100 countries, we show that the reversal exists both in a period and a cohort perspective and is mainly driven by increasing older reproductive-age fertility. We also show that the positive impact of development on fertility in high-development countries is conditional on gender equality: countries ranking high in development as measured by health, income, and education but low in gender equality continue to experience declining fertility. Our findings suggest that gender equality is crucial for countries wishing to reap the fertility dividend of high development.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi in its series Working Papers with number 049.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:don:donwpa:049

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Keywords: low fertility; socioeconomic development; Human Development Index; gender equality;

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  1. Peter McDonald, 2000. "Gender Equity in Theories of Fertility Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 427-439.
  2. Ron Lesthaeghe & Paul Willems, 1999. "Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 211-228.
  3. David, DE LA CROIX & Marie, VANDER DONCKT, 2008. "Would empowering women initiate the demographic transition in least-developing countries ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008026, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
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  7. Tomas Frejka & Gérard Calot, 2001. "Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low-Fertility Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 103-132.
  8. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  9. Chris Wilson, 2011. "Understanding Global Demographic Convergence since 1950," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 375-388, 06.
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  11. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers hal-00520948, HAL.
  12. Gerda Neyer & Gunnar Andersson, 2008. "Consequences of Family Policies on Childbearing Behavior: Effects or Artifacts?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(4), pages 699-724.
  13. Ron Lesthaeghe, 2010. "The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 211-251.
  14. Peter Mcdonald, 2006. "Low Fertility and the State: The Efficacy of Policy," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(3), pages 485-510.
  15. David de la Croix & Marie Vander Donckt, 2010. "Would Empowering Women Initiate the Demographic Transition in Least Developed Countries?," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 85-129.
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