The Structure of Expectations of the Weekly Money Supply Announcement
AbstractThis paper examines the structure of expectations of the weekly money supply announcement in the late 1970s. The data used are from a weekly telephone survey of money market participants. The rationality and structure of expectations are explored with the data organized in three ways:the mean response to each weekly survey, the pooled sample of individual responses, and time series of responses by each individual in the survey.The effect of data aggregation on rationality tests is investigated. The structure of the expectations data are also examined and it is found that both strong regressive influences and adaptive learning characterize the data.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1090.
Date of creation: Oct 1984
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Urich, Thomas and Paul Wachtel. "The Structure of Expectations of the Weekly Money Supply Announcements." Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 13, No . 2, (April 1984), pp. 183-194.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pesando, James E, 1975. "A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 849-58, August.
- Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1980.
"Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses,"
378, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-93, May.
- Carl S Bonham & Richard H Cohen, 2000.
"To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data,"
200003, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Bonham, Carl S & Cohen, Richard H, 2001. "To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 278-91, July.
- Deaves, Richard & Melino, Angelo & Pesando, James E., 1987.
"The response of interest rates to the Federal Reserve's weekly money announcements : The 'puzzle' of anticipated money,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 393-404, May.
- Richard Deaves & Angelo Melino & James E. Pesando, 1987. "The Response of Interest Rates to the Federal Reserve's Weekly Money Announcements: The "Puzzle" of Anticipated Money," NBER Working Papers 2125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- R. W. Hafer, 1985. "Investigating weekly survey forecasts of the federal funds rate," Working Papers 1985-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Sagarika Mishra & Sandeep Dhole, . "Least Squares Learning and the US Treasury Bill Rate," Financial Econometics Series 2013_05, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
- Sagarika Mishra, . "Do Agents Learn by Least Squares? The Evidence Provided by Changes in Monetary Policy," Financial Econometics Series 2012_09, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
- Higgins, Matthew L. & Mishra, Sagarika, 2014.
"State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth,"
Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 627-632.
- Matthew L Higgins & Sagarika Mishra, . "State Dependent Asymmetric Loss and the Consensus Forecast of Real U.S. GDP Growth," Financial Econometics Series 2012_10, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
- Ahmed Khwaja & Frank Sloan & Sukyung Chung, 2007. "The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 179-201, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.