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Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions

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  • Malcolm P. Baker
  • Ryan Taliaferro
  • Jeffrey Wurgler

Abstract

A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003) pseudo market timing bias. We use standard simulation techniques to estimate the size of the aggregate pseudo market timing bias for a variety of predictive regressions based on managerial decision variables. We find that the bias can explain only about one percent of the predictive power of the equity share in new issues, and that it is also much too small to overturn prior inferences about the predictive power of corporate investment plans, insider trading, dividend initiations, or the maturity of corporate debt issues.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10823.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10823

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  1. Owen Lamont, . "Investment Plans and Stock Returns."," CRSP working papers 488, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  2. Campbell, John & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Scholarly Articles 3122601, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Alexander W. Butler & Gustavo Grullon & James P. Weston, 2005. "Can Managers Forecast Aggregate Market Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 963-986, 04.
  4. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2000. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2219-2257, October.
  5. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator," NBER Working Papers 8816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Dahlquist, Magnus & de Jong, Frank, 2004. "Pseudo Market Timing: Fact or Fiction?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4609, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Seyhun, H Nejat, 1992. "Why Does Aggregate Insider Trading Predict Future Stock Returns?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1303-31, November.
  8. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "A Catering Theory of Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1125-1165, 06.
  9. Owen A. Lamont, 2002. "Evaluating Value Weighting: Corporate Events and Market Timing," NBER Working Papers 9049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lakonishok, Josef & Lee, Inmoo, 2001. "Are Insider Trades Informative?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 79-111.
  11. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
  12. Alexander W. Butler & Gustavo Grullon & James P. Weston, 2006. "Can Managers Successfully Time the Maturity Structure of Their Debt Issues?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1731-1758, 08.
  13. Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1994. "Inference in Time Series Regression When the Order of Integration of a Regressor is Unknown," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 672-700, August.
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  15. Henderson, Brian J. & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Weisbach, Michael S., 2006. "World markets for raising new capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 63-101, October.
  16. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:672-700 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Ritter, Jay R., 2003. "Investment banking and securities issuance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, pages 255-306 Elsevier.
  18. Amihud, Yakov & Hurvich, Clifford M., 2004. "Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(04), pages 813-841, December.
  19. Baker, Malcolm & Greenwood, Robin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2003. "The maturity of debt issues and predictable variation in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 261-291, November.
  20. Paul Schultz, 2003. "Pseudo Market Timing and the Long-Run Underperformance of IPOs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 483-518, 04.
  21. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
  22. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Evgeny Lyandres & Le Sun & Lu Zhang, 2005. "Investment-Based Underperformance Following Seasoned Equity Offerings," NBER Working Papers 11459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2412, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2006.

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