A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003) pseudo market timing bias. We use standard simulation techniques to estimate the size of the aggregate pseudo market timing bias for a variety of predictive regressions based on managerial decision variables. We find that the bias can explain only about one percent of the predictive power of the equity share in new issues, and that it is also much too small to overturn prior inferences about the predictive power of corporate investment plans, insider trading, dividend initiations, or the maturity of corporate debt issues.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
10823.
Length: Date of creation: Oct 2004 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10823
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Find related papers by JEL classification: G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
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Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004.
"A Catering Theory of Dividends,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1125-1165, 06.
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Brian J. Henderson & Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004.
"World Markets for Raising New Capital,"
NBER Working Papers
10225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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