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Pseudo Market Timing: Fact or Fiction?

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Author Info
Dahlquist, Magnus () (Swedish Institute for Financial Research)
de Jong, Frank () (University of Amsterdam)
Abstract

The average firm going public or issuing new equity has underperformed the market in the long run. Endogeneity of the number of new issues has been proposed as a potential explanation of this long-run underperformance. Under pseudo market timing of new issues, ex post measures of average abnormal returns may be negative on average despite zero ex ante abnormal returns. We show that, under reasonable stationarity assumptions on the process generating events, traditional measures of average abnormal returns are consistent, and the pseudo market timing effect is a small sample problem. In simulations of an empirical model we demonstrate that the bias is small even in moderate sample sizes. An abnormal return measure capturing a feasible investment strategy is not biased. We argue that it is unlikely that pseudo market timing is the explanation for the long-run underperformance in equity issuances.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Financial Research in its series SIFR Research Report Series with number 24.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0024

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Related research
Keywords: Abnormal return measures; Endogenous events; Event studies; Initial public offerings; Long-run underperformance;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  3. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi & Hausman, Jerry A, 1986. "Patents and R and D: Is There a Lag?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(2), pages 265-83, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. " The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R. & Rydqvist, Kristian, 1994. "Initial public offerings: International insights," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 2(2-3), pages 165-199, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Roger G. Ibbotson & Jody L. Sindelar & Jay R Ritter, 1994. "The Market'S Problems With The Pricing Of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 7(1), pages 66-74. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Barber, Brad M. & Lyon, John D., 1997. "Detecting long-run abnormal stock returns: The empirical power and specification of test statistics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 341-372, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Brav, Alon & Gompers, Paul A, 1997. " Myth or Reality? The Long-Run Underperformance of Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from Venture and Nonventure Capital-Backed Companies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1791-1821, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Paul Schultz, 2003. "Pseudo Market Timing and the Long-Run Underperformance of IPOs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 483-518, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Eckbo, B Espen & Maksimovic, Vojislav & Williams, Joseph, 1990. "Consistent Estimation of Cross-Sectional Models in Event Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(3), pages 343-65. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Mitchell, Mark L & Stafford, Erik, 2000. "Managerial Decisions and Long-Term Stock Price Performance," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 287-329, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2007. "Stocks as Lotteries: The Implications of Probability Weighting for Security Prices," NBER Working Papers 12936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Malcolm P. Baker & Ryan Taliaferro & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions," NBER Working Papers 10823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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