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Can Managers Forecast Aggregate Market Returns?

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Author Info
ALEXANDER W. BUTLER
GUSTAVO GRULLON
JAMES P. WESTON

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Abstract

Previous studies have found that the proportion of equity in total new debt and equity issues is negatively correlated with future equity market returns. Researchers have interpreted this finding as evidence that corporate managers are able to predict the systematic component of their stock returns and to issue equity when the market is overvalued. In this article we show that the predictive power of the share of equity in total new issues stems from pseudo-market timing and not from any abnormal ability of managers to time the equity markets. Copyright 2005 by The American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00752.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 60 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 963-986
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:60:y:2005:i:2:p:963-986

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2005. "Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," NBER Working Papers 11468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Malcolm P. Baker & Ryan Taliaferro & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions," NBER Working Papers 10823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Juan Ignacio Pena & Rosa Rodriguez, 2006. "On The Economic Link Between Asset Prices And Real Activity," Business Economics Working Papers wb063209, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa. [Downloadable!]
  4. Anton Miglo, 2006. "Debt-equity choice as a signal of earnings profile over time," Working Papers 0607, University of Guelph, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Evgeny Lyandres & Le Sun & Lu Zhang, 2005. "Investment-Based Underperformance Following Seasoned Equity Offerings," NBER Working Papers 11459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Miglo, Anton, 2006. "Debt-equity choice as a signal of profit profile over time," MPRA Paper 1283, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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