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Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach

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  • Simon Gilchrist
  • John C. Williams

Abstract

We embed the microeconomic decisions associated with investment under uncertainty, capacity utilization, and machine replacement in a general equilibrium model based on putty-clay technology. In the presence of irreversible factor proportions, a mean-preserving spread in the productivity of investment raises aggregate investment, productivity, and output. Increases in uncertainty have important dynamic implications, causing sustained increases in investment and hours and a medium-term expansion in the growth rate of labor productivity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10446.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Publication status: published as Gilchrist, Simon and John C. Williams. "Investment, Capacity, And Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005, v8(1,Jan), 1-27.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10446

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  1. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  2. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02.
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  6. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1994. "Models of Energy Use: Putty-Putty versus Putty-Clay," NBER Working Papers 4833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 2004. "Transition dynamics in vintage capital models: explaining the postwar catch-up of Germany and Japan," Working Paper Series 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2003. "Idiosyncratic Risk Matters!," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 975-1008, 06.
  9. Bagnoli, M. & Bergstrom, T., 1989. "Log-Concave Probability And Its Applications," Papers 89-23, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  10. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D.M.Fisher, 2000. "Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Employment Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
  12. Jeffrey R. Campbell, 1997. "Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Robert S. Pindyck, 1986. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 1980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September.
  15. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 1998. "Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 6812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Jeffrey R. Campbell, 1997. "Computational Appendix to Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," Technical Appendices campbell98, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  17. Chao Wei, 2003. "Energy, the Stock Market, and the Putty-Clay Investment Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 311-323, March.
  18. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Francois Gourio & Anil K Kashyap, 2007. "Investment Spikes: New Facts And A General Equilibrium Exploration," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-006, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  2. Chao Wei, 2013. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Driving, Gasoline Use and Vehicle Fuel Efficiency," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(4), pages 650-667, October.
  3. Oikawa, Koki, 2010. "Uncertainty-driven growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 897-912, May.
  4. Nick Bloom, 2006. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Firm Level Estimation and a 9/11 Simulation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0718, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Fahr, Stephan & Yao, Fang, 2009. "When does lumpy factor adjustment matter for aggregate dynamics?," Working Paper Series 1016, European Central Bank.
  6. Jean‐Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, 02.
  7. Martial Dupaigne, 2007. "Les variations choisies de l'utilisation du capital : une revue des implications macroéconomiques," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 0(2), pages 161-196.
  8. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom, 2013. "Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments," NBER Working Papers 19475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Thomas Gries & Stefan Jungblut & Tim Krieger & Henning Meier, 2009. "Statutory Retirement Age and Lifelong Learning," Working Papers CIE 9, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
  10. R. Førsund, Finn & Vislie, Jon, 2011. "From Macro Growth to Disaggregated Production Studies," Memorandum 22/2011, Oslo University, Department of Economics.

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