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Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Employment Dynamics

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  • Jeffrey R. Campbell

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

  • Jonas D. M. Fisher

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

Abstract

This paper studies how idiosyncratic productivity risk impacts aggregate employment dynamics when there is a trade-off between workers' productivity and costs of job creation and destruction. In our analysis, increasing idiosyncratic risk induces a producer to move workers out of structured jobs that are costly to create and destroy and towards less-productive but more-flexible unstructured positions. This substitution leaves the producer's total employment more responsive to both idiosyncratic and aggregate disturbances. If all of an industry's producers respond to heightened idiosyncratic risk in this way, then industry-wide employment can respond more to a given aggregate shock. We apply this insight to connect differences between young and old manufacturing plants' aggregate employment dynamics with their corresponding differences in idiosyncratic variability. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 331-353

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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:7:y:2004:i:2:p:331-353

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Keywords: Idiosyncratic Risk; Plant Life Cycle; Employment Dynamics; Adjustment Costs;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 2005. "Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, January.
  2. Nilsen, Øivind Anti & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2003. "Employment Changes, the Structure of Adjustment Costs, and Plant Size," IZA Discussion Papers 920, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Øivind A. Nilsen & Arvid Raknerud & Marina Rybalka & Terje Skjerpen, 2005. "Lumpy Investments, Factor Adjustments and Productivity," Discussion Papers 441, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  4. Ouyang, Min, 2009. "The scarring effect of recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 184-199, March.
  5. Chad Syverson, 2010. "What Determines Productivity?," NBER Working Papers 15712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Tang, Jenn-Hong, 2007. "Gross job flows and technology shocks in nondurable and durable goods sectors," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 326-354, June.
  7. Eugenio P. Pinto, 2009. "Firms' relative sensitivity to aggregate shocks and the dynamics of gross job flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Zvi Hercowitz, 2005. "The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 11330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Griffin, Naomi N., 2010. "Labor adjustment, productivity and output volatility: An evaluation of Japan's Employment Adjustment Subsidy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 28-49, March.
  10. Naomi N. Griffin, 2005. "Labor Adjustment, Productivity and Output Volatility: An Evaluation of Japan's Employment Adjustment Subsidy: Working Paper 2005-10," Working Papers 17567, Congressional Budget Office.
  11. Young, Andrew T., 2005. "Reallocating labor to initiate changes in capital structures: Hayek revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 275-282, December.
  12. Min Ouyang, 2006. "Plant Life Cycle and Aggregate Employment Dynamics," Working Papers 050632, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.

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