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The Central Role of Noise in Evaluating Interventions that Use Test Scores to Rank Schools

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Author Info
Kenneth Y. Chay
Patrick J. McEwan
Miguel Urquiola

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Abstract

Several countries have implemented programs that use test scores to rank schools, and to reward or penalize them based on their students' average performance. Recently, Kane and Staiger (2002) have warned that imprecision in the measurement of school-level test scores could impede these efforts. There is little evidence, however, on how seriously noise hinders the evaluation of the impact of these interventions. We examine these issues in the context of Chile's P-900 program a country-wide intervention in which resources were allocated based on cutoffs in schools' mean test scores. We show that transitory noise in average scores and mean reversion lead conventional estimation approaches to greatly overstate the impacts of such programs. We then show how a regression discontinuity design that utilizes the discrete nature of the selection rule can be used to control for reversion biases. While the RD analysis provides convincing evidence that the P-900 program had significant effects on test score gains, these effects are much smaller than is widely believed.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10118.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10118

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I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrea Tokman, 2002. "Evaluation of the P900 Program: A Targeted Education Program for Underperforming Schools," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 170, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joshua D. Angrist & Victor Lavy, 1999. "Using Maimonides' Rule To Estimate The Effect Of Class Size On Scholastic Achievement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 533-575, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John H. Tyler & Richard J. Murnane & John B. Willett, 2000. "Estimating The Labor Market Signaling Value Of The GED," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(2), pages 431-468, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kenneth Y. Chay & Patrick J. McEwan & Miguel Urquiola, 2003. "The Central Role of Noise in Evaluating Interventions that Use Test Scores to Rank Schools," NBER Working Papers 10118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Victor Lavy, 2002. "Evaluating the Effect of Teachers' Group Performance Incentives on Pupil Achievement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1286-1317, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Urquiola, Miguel, 2001. "Identifying class size effects in developing countries : evidence from rural schools in Bolivia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2711, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Paul Glewwe & Nauman Ilias & Michael Kremer, 2003. "Teacher Incentives," NBER Working Papers 9671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Miguel Urquiola, 2003. "When Schools Compete, How Do They Compete? An Assessment of Chile's Nationwide School Voucher Program," NBER Working Papers 10008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Thomas J. Kane & Douglas O. Staiger, 2002. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Using Imprecise School Accountability Measures," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 91-114, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Thomas J. Kane & Douglas O. Staiger, 2001. "Improving School Accountability Measures," NBER Working Papers 8156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ashenfelter, Orley C, 1978. "Estimating the Effect of Training Programs on Earnings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 47-57, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Eric A. Hanushek & Margaret E. Raymond, 2002. "Improving educational quality: how best to evaluate our schools," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 193-247. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jonathan Guryan, 2001. "Does Money Matter? Regression-Discontinuity Estimates from Education Finance Reform in Massachusetts," NBER Working Papers 8269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ashenfelter, Orley & Card, David, 1985. "Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 648-60, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rajashri Chakrabarti, 2007. "Vouchers, public school response, and the role of incentives: evidence from Florida," Staff Reports 306, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Rajashri Chakrabarti, 2005. "Can Increasing Private School Participation and Monetary Loss in a Voucher Program Affect Public School Performance? Evidence from Milwaukee," Public Economics 0512003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kenneth Y. Chay & Patrick J. McEwan & Miguel Urquiola, 2005. "The Central Role of Noise in Evaluating Interventions that Use Test Scores to Rank Schools," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1237-1258, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Randall Reback, 2006. "Teaching to the Rating: School Accountability and the Distribution of Student Achievement," Working Papers 0602, Barnard College, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Shapiro, Joseph, 2006. "Evaluating the impact of Mexico ' s quality schools program : the pitfalls of using nonexperimental data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4036, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Guido Imbens & Thomas Lemieux, 2007. "Regression Discontinuity Designs: A Guide to Practice," NBER Technical Working Papers 0337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Harin, Alexander, 2006. "Scientific Revolution? A Farewell to EconWPA. MPRA is welcome," MPRA Paper 71, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Schady, Norbert & Filmer, Deon, 2006. "Getting girls into school : evidence from a scholarship program in Cambodia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3910, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alejandra Mizala & Pilar Romaguera, 2003. "Rendimiento Escolar y Premios por Desempeño. La Experiencia Latinoamericana (Scholastic performance and performance awards)," Documentos de Trabajo 157, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
  10. Rajashri Chakrabarti, 2008. "Impact of voucher design on public school performance: evidence from Florida and Milwaukee voucher programs," Staff Reports 315, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Alejandra Mizala & Miguel Urquiola, 2007. "School Markets: The Impact of Information Approximating Schools' Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 13676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Alejandra Mizala & Miguel Urquiola, 2007. "Parental choice and school markets: The impact of information approximating school effectiveness," Documentos de Trabajo 239, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
  13. Alejandra Mizala & Pilar Romaguera & Miguel Urquiola, 2006. "Socioeconomic status or noise? Tradeoffs in the generation of school quality information," Documentos de Trabajo 225, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Harin, Alexander, 2007. "Principle of uncertain future and utility," MPRA Paper 1959, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. Wolff, Hendrik & Chong, Howard & Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2008. "Consequences of Data Error in Aggregate Indicators: Evidence from the Human Development Index," IZA Discussion Papers 3346, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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