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Market Size in Innovation: Theory and Evidence From the Pharmaceutical Industry

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Daron Acemoglu
Joshua Linn

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Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of (potential) market size on entry of new drugs and pharmaceutical innovation. Focusing on exogenous changes driven by U.S. demographic trends, we find that a 1 percent increase in the potential market size for a drug category leads to a 4 to 6 percent increase in the number of new drugs in that category. This response comes from both the entry of generic drugs and new non-generic drugs, and is generally robust to controlling for a variety of non-profit factors, pre-existing trends

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10038.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10038

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O31 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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  2. Frank R. Lichtenberg & Suchin Virabhak, 2002. "Pharmaceutical-embodied technical progress, longevity, and quality of life: drugs as "equipment for your health"," NBER Working Papers 9351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Rebecca Henderson & Iain Cockburn, 1996. "Scale, Scope, and Spillovers: The Determinants of Research Productivity in Drug Discovery," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 27(1), pages 32-59, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Rosenberg, Nathan, 1974. "Science, Invention and Economic Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 84(333), pages 90-108, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Frank Lichtenberg, 2002. "The Effects of Medicare on Health Care Utilization and Outcomes," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1028-1028. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jerry A. Hausman & Bronwyn H. Hall & Zvi Griliches, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," NBER Technical Working Papers 0017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. DiMasi, Joseph A. & Hansen, Ronald W. & Grabowski, Henry G. & Lasagna, Louis, 1991. "Cost of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-142, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
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  13. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2002. "The Effects of Medicare on Health Care Utilization and Outcomes," NBER Chapters, in: Frontiers in Health Policy Research, Volume 5, pages 27-52 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Ariel Pakes & Mark Schankerman, 1980. "An Exploration into the Determinants of Research Intensity," NBER Working Papers 0438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Acemoglu, Daron, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809, October.
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  20. Michael Kremer, 2002. "Pharmaceuticals and the Developing World," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 67-90, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. DiMasi, Joseph A. & Hansen, Ronald W. & Grabowski, Henry G., 2003. "The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 151-185, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Daron Acemoglu, 1998. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change And Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1055-1089, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Cockburn, Iain M. & Henderson, Rebecca M., 2001. "Scale and scope in drug development: unpacking the advantages of size in pharmaceutical research," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1033-1057, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Daron Acemoglu, 2003. "Labor- And Capital-Augmenting Technical Change," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 1-37, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Ariel Pakes & Zvi Griliches, 1980. "Patents and R and D at the Firm Level: A First Look," NBER Working Papers 0561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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