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Contagion and the beginning of the crisis – pre-Lehman period

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Author Info
Júlia Király () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
Márton Nagy () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
Viktor E. Szabó () (CSAM)
Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the antecedents, main drivers and spillover mechanisms of the turbulence emanating from the US sub-prime credit market in the summer of 2007. Its primary goal is to discuss the facts and interrelationships featured in the various analyses and statistics in a uniform, non-standard approach, to separate the ‘centre’ from the ‘periphery’ in terms of the impact of contagion, and to understand the causes and consequences in the pre-Lehman period. The paper concludes that the primary causes of the turmoil were a persistently low international interest rate environment and financial imbalances engendered by globalisation. The combination of accelerating house price inflation and rapid financial asset price rises due to sub-prime mortgage credit securitisations (the originate-and-distribute model) as well as the bursting of asset price bubbles collectively were responsible for the magnitude of the distress. The spillover from the turmoil, in turn, was the consequence of increased international financial integration. One innovation of the paper is a detailed analysis of the channel of contagion within financial integration: a confidence crisis, coupled with turbulence in the interbank markets, played a major role in the centre, while on the periphery the triggers were internal vulnerability, rises in risk premia and reduced access to credit.

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Paper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Occasional Papers with number 2008/76.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2008/76

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Related research
Keywords: sub-prime; turmoil; turbulence; mortgage credit.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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  1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2008. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 13936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Honohan, Patrick & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2003. "The fiscal cost implications of an accommodating approach to banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1539-1560, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 51-74, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Rochet, Jean-Charles & Vives, Xavier, 2004. "Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort : Was Bagehot Right After All?," IDEI Working Papers 294, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Yener Altunbas & Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marqués, 2007. "Securitisation and the bank lending channel," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 653, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-2), pages 299-362. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Claudio Borio, 2007. "Change and Constancy in the Financial System: Implications for Financial Distress and Policy," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Jeremy Lawson (ed.), The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  10. Márton Nagy & Viktor E. Szabó, 2008. "The sub-prime crisis and its impact on the Hungarian banking sector," MNB Bulletin, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 3(1), pages 35-43, April. [Downloadable!]
  11. Cowan, Adrian M. & Cowan, Charles D., 2004. "Default correlation: An empirical investigation of a subprime lender," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 753-771, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Garry J. Schinasi & T. Todd Smith, 1999. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/136, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Calvo, Guillermo & Talvi, Ernesto, 2006. "The resolution of global imbalances: Soft landing in the North, sudden stop in emerging markets?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 605-613, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The evolution of the subprime mortgage market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 31-56. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Claudio Borio & William Nelson, 2008. "Monetary operations and the financial turmoil," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March. [Downloadable!]
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