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The housing meltdown: Why did it happen in the United States?

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Author Info
Luci Ellis
Abstract

The crisis enveloping global financial markets since August 2007 was triggered by actual and prospective credit losses on US mortgages. Was the United States just unlucky to have been the first to experience a housing crisis? Or was it inherently more susceptible to one? I examine the limited international evidence available, to ask how the boom-bust cycle in the US housing market differed from elsewhere and what the underlying institutional drivers of these differences were. Compared with other countries, the United States seems to have: built up a larger overhang of excess housing supply; experienced a greater easing in mortgage lending standards; and ended up with a household sector more vulnerable to falling housing prices. Some of these outcomes seem to have been driven by tax, legal and regulatory systems that encouraged households to increase their leverage and permitted lenders to enable that development. Given the institutional background, it may have been that the US housing boom was always more likely to end badly than the booms elsewhere.

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Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 259.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:259

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Related research
Keywords: housing construction; housing prices; mortgage delinquencies; mortgage markets; subprime;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2005. "The American Mortgage in Historical and International Context," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 93-114, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Paul S. Mills & John Kiff, 2007. "Money for Nothing and Checks for Free: Recent Developments in U.S. Subprime Mortgage Markets," IMF Working Papers 07/188, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2008. "Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 14193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Luci Ellis & Laura Berger-Thomson, 2004. "Housing Construction Cycles and Interest Rates," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 335, Econometric Society.
  6. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2007. "Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2007-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: theory and evidence," Public Policy Discussion Paper 08-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2003. "The impact of building restrictions on housing affordability," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 21-39. [Downloadable!]
  9. Robert Wade, 2008. "The First-World Debt Crisis of 2007-2010 in Global Perspective," Challenge, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 51(4), pages 23-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Robert B. Avery & Kenneth P. Brevoort & Glenn B. Canner, 2007. "The 2006 HMDA data," Web Site, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Robert B. Avery & Kenneth P. Brevoort & Glenn B. Canner, 2008. "The 2007 HMDA data," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Dec, pages A107-A146. [Downloadable!]
  11. Dell''Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence From The Subprime Mortgage Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Christopher J. Mayer & Gary V. Engelhardt, 1994. "Gifts, down payments, and housing affordability," Working Papers 94-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  13. Laura Berger-Thomson & Luci Ellis, 2004. "Housing Construction Cycles and Interest Rates," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-08, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  14. Paul van den Noord & Chistopher Heady, 2001. "Surveillance of Tax Policies: A Synthesis of Findings in Economic Surveys," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 303, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "Income volatility and residential mortgage delinquency across the EU," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 153-177, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Adam B. Ashcraft & Til Schuermann, 2008. "Understanding the securitization of subprime mortgage credit," Staff Reports 318, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  17. Benito, Andrew, 2006. "The down-payment constraint and UK housing market: Does the theory fit the facts?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Kerry D. Vandell & Thomas Thibodeau, 1985. "Estimation of Mortgage Defaults Using Disaggregate Loan History Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 292-316. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Luci Ellis, 2006. "Housing and Housing Finance: The View from Australia and Beyond," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-12, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  20. Christopher J. Mayer & Karen Pence, 2008. "Subprime Mortgages: What, Where, and to Whom?," NBER Working Papers 14083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bandyopadhyay, Arindam & Saha, Asish, 2009. "Factors Driving Demand and Default Risk in Residential Housing Loans: Indian Evidence," MPRA Paper 14352, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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