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Housing Construction Cycles and Interest Rates

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  • Luci Ellis
  • Laura Berger-Thomson

Abstract

Housing investment is one of the most cyclical components of GDP. Much of that cyclicality stems from the sector's sensitivity to interest rates, but it is also possible that construction lags generate intrinsic cyclicality in this sector. Although the housing sector is generally considered to be more interest-sensitive than the economy as a whole, the degree of this sensitivity seems to vary between countries and through time. In this paper, we model the housing markets in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada using a structural three-stage least-squares system. We document the variations in the housing sector's cyclicality and sensitivity to movements in interest rates, and attempt to determine the underlying causes of these differences.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings with number 335.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:335

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Keywords: Housing;

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References

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  1. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  2. Meen, Geoffrey, 2000. "Housing Cycles and Efficiency," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 114-40, May.
  3. Sven Rady, 1998. "Boom In, Bust Out: Young Households and the Housing Price Cycle," FMG Discussion Papers dp310, Financial Markets Group.
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  5. Stein, Jeremy C, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406, May.
  6. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  7. Henderson, J Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M, 1983. "A Model of Housing Tenure Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 98-113, March.
  8. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July.
  9. Stuart S. Rosenthal, 1999. "Residential Buildings And The Cost Of Construction: New Evidence On The Efficiency Of The Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 288-302, May.
  10. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
  11. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1994. "The UK Consumption Boom of the Late 1980s: Aggregate Implications of Microeconomic Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1269-1302, November.
  12. Kenny, Geoff, 1999. "Modelling the demand and supply sides of the housing market: evidence from Ireland1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 389-409, August.
  13. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 139-158.
  14. Henderson, J Vernon & Ionnides, Yannis M, 1986. "Tenure Choice and the Demand for Housing," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210), pages 231-46, May.
  15. Luci Ellis & Dan Andrews, 2001. "City Sizes, Housing Costs, and Wealth," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  16. Steven C. Bourassa & Patric H. Hendershott, 1995. "Australian Capital City Real House Prices, 1979-1993," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 28(3), pages 16-26.
  17. Ioannides, Yannis M & Rosenthal, Stuart S, 1994. "Estimating the Consumption and Investment Demands for Housing and Their Effect on Housing Tenure Status," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 127-41, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luci Ellis & Mariano Kulish & Stephanie Wallace, 2012. "Property Market Cycles as Paths to Financial Distress," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.), Property Markets and Financial Stability Reserve Bank of Australia.
  2. Luci Ellis, 2006. "Housing and Housing Finance: The View from Australia and Beyond," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. World Bank, 2006. "Urban Land and Housing Markets in the Punjab, Pakistan," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8280, The World Bank.
  4. Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2012. "Monetary policy and the housing market in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 849-863.
  5. Luci Ellis, 2010. "The Housing Meltdown: Why Did It Happen in the United States?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 13(3), pages 351-394.
  6. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Forecasting the US Real Private Residential Fixed Investment Using Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201348, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  7. Frédérick Demers, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Housing Investment: The Case of Canada," Working Papers 05-41, Bank of Canada.
  8. Judith Yates, 2011. "Housing in Australia in the 2000s: On the Agenda Too Late?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 2000s Reserve Bank of Australia.
  9. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 62, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  10. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Heterogeneity in house price dynamics," DNB Working Papers 371, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  11. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2011. "Macro and micro drivers of house price dynamics: An application to Dutch data," DNB Working Papers 288, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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