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Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis

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Author Info
Yuliya Demyanyk
Otto Van Hemert
Abstract

We analyze the subprime mortgage crisis: an unusually large fraction of subprime mortgages originated in 2006 being delinquent or in foreclosure only months later. We utilize a loan-level database, covering about half of all US subprime mortgages, and identify two major causes. First, over the past five years, high loan-to-value borrowers increasingly became high-risk borrowers, in terms of elevated delinquency and foreclosure rates. Lenders were aware of this and adjusted mortgage rates accordingly over time. Second, the below-average house price appreciation in 2006-2007 further contributed to the crisis.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers with number 2007-05.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlsp:2007-05

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Related research
Keywords: Subprime mortgage ; Mortgage loans;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "Subprime refinancing: equity extraction and mortgage termination," Working Papers 2006-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, . "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 322, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. John Y. Campbell & Joao F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," NBER Working Papers 9759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Ralph S.J Koijen & Otto Van Hemert & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2007. "Mortgage Timing," NBER Working Papers 13361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. von Furstenberg, George M & Green, R Jeffery, 1974. "Home Mortgage Delinquencies: A Cohort Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(5), pages 1545-48, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2008. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 13936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Paul Welfens, 2008. "Banking crisis and prudential supervision: a European perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 347-356, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David C. Wheelock, 2008. "The federal response to home mortgage distress: lessons from the Great Depression," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 133-148. [Downloadable!]
  4. Chris Mayer & Karen Pence, 2008. "Subprime mortgages: what, where, and to whom?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Patrick Honohan, 2008. "Bank Failures: The Limitations of Risk Modelling," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp263, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  6. Patrick Honohan, 2008. "Risk Management and the Costs of the Banking Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp262, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  7. Luc Laeven & Deniz Igan & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," IMF Working Papers 08/106, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Luci Ellis, 2008. "The housing meltdown: Why did it happen in the United States?," BIS Working Papers 259, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  9. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Rajdeep Sengupta, 2008. "Where's the smoking gun? a study of underwriting standards for US subprime mortgages," Working Papers 2008-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  10. Andrew Haughwout & Richard Peach & Joseph Tracy, 2008. "Juvenile delinquent mortgages: bad credit or bad economy?," Staff Reports 341, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Christopher J. Mayer & Karen Pence, 2008. "Subprime Mortgages: What, Where, and to Whom?," NBER Working Papers 14083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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