Housing Construction Cycles and Interest Rates
AbstractHousing investment is one of the most cyclical components of GDP. Much of that cyclicality stems from the sector’s sensitivity to interest rates, but it is also possible that construction lags generate intrinsic cyclicality in this sector. Although the housing sector is generally considered to be more interest-sensitive than the economy as a whole, the degree of this sensitivity seems to vary between countries and through time. In this paper, we model the housing markets in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada using a structural three-stage least-squares system. We document the variations in the housing sector’s cyclicality and sensitivity to movements in interest rates, and attempt to determine the underlying causes of these differences.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2004-08.
Date of creation: Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
- R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-10-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2004-10-18 (Business Economics)
- NEP-GEO-2004-10-18 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-MAC-2004-10-18 (Macroeconomics)
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