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Evidence on purchasing power parity from univariate models: the case of smooth transition trend-stationarity

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  • Robert Sollis

Abstract

Recent research has found that trend-break unit root tests derived from univariate linear models do not support the hypothesis of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) for US dollar real exchange rates. In this paper univariate smooth transition models are utilized to develop unit root tests that allow under the alternative hypothesis for stationarity around a gradually changing deterministic trend function. These tests reveal statistically significant evidence against the null hypothesis of a unit root for the real exchange rates of a number of countries against the US dollar. However, restrictions consistent with long-run PPP are rejected for some of the countries for which a rejection of the unit root hypothesis is obtained. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 with number 91.

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Date of creation: 27 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc03:91

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  1. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
  3. David Harvey & Terence Mills, 2002. "Unit roots and double smooth transitions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 675-683.
  4. Rothman, P. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1999. "A multivariate STAR analysis of the relationship between money and output," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9945-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  5. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
  6. Sollis, Robert & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Tests for Symmetric and Asymmetric Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 686-700, August.
  7. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
  8. Papell, David H., 2002. "The great appreciation, the great depreciation, and the purchasing power parity hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 51-82, June.
  9. Leybourne, Stephen J. & Mizen, Paul, 1999. "Understanding the disinflations in Australia, Canada and New Zealand using evidence from smooth transition analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 799-816, October.
  10. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
  11. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
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Cited by:
  1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:27:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2009. "3-Regime symmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-07, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  3. Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2010. "Nominal Interest Rates and Stationarity," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-43, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  4. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Javier Ordoñez Monfort & Maria Amparo Camarero Olivas, 2006. "Nonlinear trend stationary of real exchange rates: The case of the Mediterranean countries," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-27, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  5. P. S. Sephton, 2010. "Unit roots and purchasing power parity: another kick at the can," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3439-3453.
  6. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle, 2008. "Nonlinearities in real exchange rate determination: do African exchange rates follow a radom walk?," Working Papers 2008/8, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  7. Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2010. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate Determination and Multiple Structural Changes," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-39, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  8. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Paulo José Regis, 2008. "Testing for PPP in Australia: Evidence from unit root test against nonlinear trend stationarity alternatives," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(27), pages 1-8.
  9. Sollis, Robert, 2008. "U.S. dollar real exchange rates: Nonlinearity revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 516-528, June.
  10. McMillan, David G., 2009. "The confusing time-series behaviour of real exchange rates: Are asymmetries important?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 692-711, October.
  11. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis, 2014. "Smooth transition trends and labor force participation rates in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 629-652, March.
  12. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.

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