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Nonlinear trend stationary of real exchange rates: The case of the Mediterranean countries

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  • Juan Carlos Cuestas

    ()
    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Javier Ordoñez Monfort

    (Universitat Jaume I)

  • Maria Amparo Camarero Olivas

    (Universitat Jaume I)

Abstract

The aim of this article is to provide additional evidence on the fulfilment of the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis in the so-called Mediterranean countries. In order to test for the empirical validity of such hypothesis, we have applied two types of unit root tests. The first group is due to Bierens (1997) who generalizes the alternative hypothesis to nonlinear trend stationarity and, the second is the Leybourne, Newbold and Vougas (1998) approach that uses a nonlinear specification for the intercept and slope in order to detrend the series. The results suggest that the evidence in favour of the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis increases when we allow for nonlinear alternatives.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie AD with number 2006-27.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2006-27

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Keywords: purchasing power parity; real exchange rate; unit roots; structural change; nonlinearity;

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References

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  1. Andrew Parkes & Andreas Savvides, 1999. "Purchasing power parity in the long run and structural breaks: evidence from real sterling exchange rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 117-127.
  2. Robert Sollis, 2005. "Evidence on purchasing power parity from univariate models: the case of smooth transition trend-stationarity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 79-98.
  3. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
  4. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  5. Antonio Montanes & Jesus Clemente, 1999. "Real exchange rates and structural breaks: evidence for the Spanish peseta," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(6), pages 349-352.
  6. Mariam Camarero & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Javier Ordonez, 2006. "Purchasing Power Parity versus the EU in the Mediterranean countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 157-167.
  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," NBER Working Papers 6053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  9. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
  10. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
  11. Sarno, Lucio, 2000. "Real exchange rate behavior in the Middle East: a re-examination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 127-136, February.
  12. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Asymptotic Normality, When Regressors Have a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1397-1417, November.
  13. Murat Doganlar, 1999. "Testing long-run validity of purchasing power parity for Asian countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 147-151.
  14. Lucrezia Reichlin & Peter Rappoport, 1989. "Segmented trends and non-stationary time series," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10169, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  15. Krugman, Paul R., 1978. "Purchasing power parity and exchange rates : Another look at the evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 397-407, August.
  16. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
  17. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  18. Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Rubia, Antonio, 2005. "The performance of unit root tests under level-dependent heteroskedasticity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 262-268, December.
  19. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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Cited by:
  1. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2007. "Purchasing Power Parity In Central And Eastern European Countries: An Analysis Of Unit Roots And Nonlinearities," Working Papers. Serie AD 2007-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  2. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Paulo José Regis, 2008. "Testing for PPP in Australia: Evidence from unit root test against nonlinear trend stationarity alternatives," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(27), pages 1-8.

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