Threshold Cointegration between Stock Returns : An application of STECM Models
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to study the efficient capital market hypothesis by using recent developments in nonlinear econometrics. In such a context, we estimate a Smooth Transition Error Correction Model (STECM). We introduce the DowJones as an explanatory variable of the dynamics of the other stock indexes. The error correction term takes into account of the structural changes that occured progressively from both the endogenous and the DowJones series. We note that the Smooth Transition Error Correction Model, for which the dynamics of adjustment is of ESTAR type, is more adequate than the linear ECM model to represent the adjustment of the stock price to the long term equilibrium price. Estimation results reveal the nonlinearity inherent to the adjustment process. In particular, we note that the adjustment is not continuous and that the speed of convergence toward price of equilibrium is not constant but rather function of the size of the disequilibrium.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0412001.
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 02 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 17
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://220.127.116.11
Efficiency; Regime-Switching Models; Threshold Cointegration; STECM.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
- C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-12-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2004-12-12 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FIN-2004-12-12 (Finance)
- NEP-FIN-2004-12-15 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2004-12-12 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002.
"Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
- Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995.
"Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
56, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
- Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
- Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
- Mark P. Taylor & Panos Michael & David A. Peel, 1997. "Ajustement non linéaire vers le taux de change d'équilibre à long terme. Le modèle monétaire revisité," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 653-659.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
- Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
- Alvaro Escribano & Oscar Jorda, .
"Improved Testing And Specification Of Smooth Transition Regression Models,"
Department of Economics
97-26, California Davis - Department of Economics.
- Oscar Jorda & Alvaro Escribano, 2003. "Improved Testing And Specification Of Smooth Transition Regression Models," Working Papers 9726, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997.
"Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Michael-Nobay-Peel ESTAR models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00113, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Phillip Rothman & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2000.
"A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between Money and Output,"
0012, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
- Rothman, P. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1999. "A multivariate STAR analysis of the relationship between money and output," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9945-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Philip Rothman & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 1999. "A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between Money and Output," Working Papers 9913, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
- repec:att:wimass:9520 is not listed on IDEAS
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997.
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Balke-Fomby threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00010, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1991. "On the application of robust, regression- based diagnostics to models of conditional means and conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 5-46, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.