IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v74y2021ics0301420721004256.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the dynamic relationship between Bitcoin and commodities: New insights through STECM model

Author

Listed:
  • Moussa, Wajdi
  • Mgadmi, Nidhal
  • Béjaoui, Azza
  • Regaieg, Rym

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic relationships between Bitcoin, Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Coal in the short- and long-run over the period 2011–2018. For this end, we use a Smooth Transition Error Correction Model (STECM) to accommodate the presence of some stylized facts (the nonlinearity and asymmetry) in the adjustment process of Bitcoin towards their long-run equilibrium. We show significant long-run equilibrium links for Bitcoin, which seems to be asymmetric and nonlinear. Gold and Oil Brent Crude logarithmic prices potentially and significantly influence the Bitcoin logarithmic prices. Our empirical results also indicate that the current Bitcoin logarithmic prices have a significant and positive impact on their lagged values for both regimes, implying some symmetric memory effects over time. Such analysis of the interlinkages between different assets could be interesting from investment and academic perspectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Moussa, Wajdi & Mgadmi, Nidhal & Béjaoui, Azza & Regaieg, Rym, 2021. "Exploring the dynamic relationship between Bitcoin and commodities: New insights through STECM model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:74:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721004256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102416
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420721004256
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102416?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pavel Ciaian & Miroslava Rajcaniova & d’Artis Kancs, 2016. "The economics of BitCoin price formation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(19), pages 1799-1815, April.
    2. Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad & Mohamad, Azhar & Mohamed Shariff, Mohammad Syazwan Bin, 2019. "Lead-Lag relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum: Evidence from hourly and daily data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 306-321.
    3. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-1078, September.
    4. Fang, Libing & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Does global economic uncertainty matter for the volatility and hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 29-36.
    5. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Apergis, Nicholas, 2019. "Determining the predictive power between cryptocurrencies and real time commodity futures: Evidence from quantile causality tests," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 603-616.
    6. Micha Ober & Stefan Katzenbeisser & Kay Hamacher, 2013. "Structure and Anonymity of the Bitcoin Transaction Graph," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, May.
    7. Marie Briere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Virtual Currency, Tangible Return: Portfolio Diversification with Bitcoins," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 16(6), pages 365-373.
    8. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron P. & Hernandez, Jose Arreola, 2019. "Co-movements between Bitcoin and Gold: A wavelet coherence analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    9. Jareño, Francisco & González, María de la O & Tolentino, Marta & Sierra, Karen, 2020. "Bitcoin and gold price returns: A quantile regression and NARDL analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2018. "Is Bitcoin a hedge, a safe haven or a diversifier for oil price movements? A comparison with gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 787-801.
    11. Arouri, Mohamed & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Financial linkages between US sector credit default swaps markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 223-243.
    12. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Does Bitcoin hedge global uncertainty? Evidence from wavelet-based quantile-in-quantile regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 87-95.
    13. Neil Gandal & Hanna Halaburda, 2014. "Competition in the Cryptocurrency Market," Staff Working Papers 14-33, Bank of Canada.
    14. Corbet, Shaen & Meegan, Andrew & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2018. "Exploring the dynamic relationships between cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 28-34.
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
    17. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Roubaud, David & Wang, Shixuan, 2018. "Bitcoin and global financial stress: A copula-based approach to dependence and causality in the quantiles," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 297-307.
    18. Ali, Robleh & Barrdear, John & Clews, Roger & Southgate, James, 2014. "The economics of digital currencies," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(3), pages 276-286.
    19. Thies, Sven & Molnár, Peter, 2018. "Bayesian change point analysis of Bitcoin returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 223-227.
    20. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-484, November.
    21. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Moore, Tyler & Oberman, Tali, 2018. "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 86-96.
    22. Anne Haubo Dyhrberg, 2015. "Bitcoin, Gold and the Dollar – a GARCH Volatility Analysis," Working Papers 201520, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    23. Bouri, Elie & Molnár, Peter & Azzi, Georges & Roubaud, David & Hagfors, Lars Ivar, 2017. "On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 192-198.
    24. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    25. Osamah Al-Khazali & Elie Bouri & David Roubaud, 2018. "The impact of positive and negative macroeconomic news surprises: Gold versus Bitcoin," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 373-382.
    26. Symitsi, Efthymia & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J., 2019. "The economic value of Bitcoin: A portfolio analysis of currencies, gold, oil and stocks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 97-110.
    27. Mensi, Walid & Sensoy, Ahmet & Aslan, Aylin & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2019. "High-frequency asymmetric volatility connectedness between Bitcoin and major precious metals markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    28. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    29. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Network causality structures among Bitcoin and other financial assets: A directed acyclic graph approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 203-213.
    30. Anne Haubo Dyhrberg, 2015. "Hedging Capabilities of Bitcoin. Is it the virtual gold?," Working Papers 201521, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    31. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Asghar, Nadia & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Do Islamic indices provide diversification to bitcoin? A time-varying copulas and value at risk application," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    32. Aaron Yelowitz & Matthew Wilson, 2015. "Characteristics of Bitcoin users: an analysis of Google search data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1030-1036, September.
    33. Cheah, Eng-Tuck & Fry, John, 2015. "Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-36.
    34. Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Modeling non-linearities in real effective exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-45, January.
    35. Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2017. "Volatility estimation for Bitcoin: A comparison of GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 3-6.
    36. Elie Bouri & Naji Jalkh & Peter Molnár & David Roubaud, 2017. "Bitcoin for energy commodities before and after the December 2013 crash: diversifier, hedge or safe haven?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(50), pages 5063-5073, October.
    37. Jawadi Fredj & Koubaa Yousra, 2004. "Threshold Cointegration between Stock Returns : An application of STECM Models," Econometrics 0412001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2019. "Hedging bitcoin with other financial assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 30-36.
    39. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Modeling Nonlinear And Heterogeneous Dynamic Links In International Monetary Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 232-251, September.
    40. Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lucey, Brian, 2020. "Bitcoin, gold, and commodities as safe havens for stocks: New insight through wavelet analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 156-164.
    41. Sang Hoon Kang & Ron Mciver & Jose Arreola Hernandez, 2019. "Co-movements between Bitcoin and Gold: A wavelet coherence analysis," Post-Print hal-02468160, HAL.
    42. Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Wei & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua, 2019. "Is cryptocurrency a hedge or a safe haven for international indices? A comprehensive and dynamic perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-18.
    43. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lucey, Brian, 2019. "Is Bitcoin a better safe-haven investment than gold and commodities?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 322-330.
    44. Chaim, Pedro & Laurini, Márcio P., 2019. "Is Bitcoin a bubble?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 222-232.
    45. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nurkhodzha Akbulaev & Tural Abdulhasanov, 2023. "Analyzing the Connection between Energy Prices and Cryptocurrency throughout the Pandemic Period," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 227-234, January.
    2. Clement Moyo & Izunna Anyikwa & Andrew Phiri, 2023. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Oil Market Returns: Has Market Efficiency Being Violated?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 118-127, January.
    3. Abdülsamet Aça & Kemal Dinçer Dingeç, 2023. "NARDL Yönteminin Kripto Para Birimlerine Yönelik Bir Monte Carlo Simülasyon Analizi," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(39), pages 37-48, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chu, Jeffrey & Chan, Stephen & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2021. "Bitcoin versus high-performance technology stocks in diversifying against global stock market indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    2. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Yin, Libo & Nie, Jing & Han, Liyan, 2021. "Understanding cryptocurrency volatility: The role of oil market shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-253.
    4. Andrea Flori, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies In Finance: Review And Applications," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(05), pages 1-22, August.
    5. Haffar, Adlane & Le Fur, Éric, 2022. "Time-varying dependence of Bitcoin," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 211-220.
    6. Walid Bakry & Audil Rashid & Somar Al-Mohamad & Nasser El-Kanj, 2021. "Bitcoin and Portfolio Diversification: A Portfolio Optimization Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-24, June.
    7. Hanif, Waqas & Areola Hernandez, Jose & Troster, Victor & Kang, Sang Hoon & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2022. "Nonlinear dependence and spillovers between cryptocurrency and global/regional equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Lin, Mei-Yin & An, Che-Lun, 2021. "The relationship between Bitcoin and resource commodity futures: Evidence from NARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Fang, Tong & Su, Zhi & Yin, Libo, 2020. "Economic fundamentals or investor perceptions? The role of uncertainty in predicting long-term cryptocurrency volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2020. "Tail dependence between Bitcoin and financial assets: Evidence from a quantile cross-spectral approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Pho, Kim Hung & Ly, Sel & Lu, Richard & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2021. "Is Bitcoin a better portfolio diversifier than gold? A copula and sectoral analysis for China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Bedi, Prateek & Nashier, Tripti, 2020. "On the investment credentials of Bitcoin: A cross-currency perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    14. Bhuiyan, Rubaiyat Ahsan & Husain, Afzol & Zhang, Changyong, 2021. "A wavelet approach for causal relationship between bitcoin and conventional asset classes," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    16. Mensi, Walid & Sensoy, Ahmet & Aslan, Aylin & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2019. "High-frequency asymmetric volatility connectedness between Bitcoin and major precious metals markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    17. Fang, Libing & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Does global economic uncertainty matter for the volatility and hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 29-36.
    18. Mokni, Khaled & Youssef, Manel & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and economic policy uncertainty: The first test on the hedging and safe haven properties of cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lucey, Brian, 2020. "Bitcoin, gold, and commodities as safe havens for stocks: New insight through wavelet analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 156-164.
    20. Urom, Christian & Abid, Ilyes & Guesmi, Khaled & Chevallier, Julien, 2020. "Quantile spillovers and dependence between Bitcoin, equities and strategic commodities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 230-258.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    STECM; Bitcoin; Portfolio management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:74:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721004256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.