IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/12061.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem

Author

Listed:
  • Gandal, Neil
  • Oberman, Tali
  • Moore, Tyler
  • Hamrick, JT

Abstract

We identify and analyze the impact of suspicious trading activity on the Mt. Gox Bitcoin currency exchange between February and November 2013. We discuss two distinct periods in which approximately 600,000 bitcoins (BTC) valued at $188 million were acquired by agents who likely did not pay for them. During both periods, the USD-BTC exchange rate rose by an average of four percent on days when suspicious trades took place. On days without suspicious activity, the exchange rate remained at. Based on rigorous analysis with extensive robustness checks, we conclude that the suspicious trading activity likely caused the unprecedented spike in the USD-BTC exchange rate in late 2013, when the rate jumped from around $150 to more than $1,000 in two months.

Suggested Citation

  • Gandal, Neil & Oberman, Tali & Moore, Tyler & Hamrick, JT, 2017. "Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem," CEPR Discussion Papers 12061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12061
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP12061
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pavel Ciaian & Miroslava Rajcaniova & d’Artis Kancs, 2016. "The economics of BitCoin price formation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(19), pages 1799-1815, April.
    2. Wilko Bolt & Maarten R.C. Van Oordt, 2020. "On the Value of Virtual Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 835-862, June.
    3. Wilko Bolt & Maarten R.C. Van Oordt, 2020. "On the Value of Virtual Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 835-862, June.
    4. Ulf Brüggemann & Aditya Kaul & Christian Leuz & Ingrid M. Werner, 2018. "The Twilight Zone: OTC Regulatory Regimes and Market Quality," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 898-942.
    5. Dirk van der Linden & Stijn J.B.A. Hoppenbrouwers & Henderik A. Proper, 2014. "On the Identification of Modeler Communities," International Journal of Information System Modeling and Design (IJISMD), IGI Global, vol. 5(2), pages 22-40, April.
    6. Rainer Böhme & Nicolas Christin & Benjamin Edelman & Tyler Moore, 2015. "Bitcoin: Economics, Technology, and Governance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 213-238, Spring.
    7. Neil Gandal & Hanna Halaburda, 2016. "Can We Predict the Winner in a Market with Network Effects? Competition in Cryptocurrency Market," Games, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-21, July.
    8. Massoud, Nadia & Ullah, Saif & Scholnick, Barry, 2016. "Does it help firms to secretly pay for stock promoters?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 45-61.
    9. Rajesh K. Aggarwal & Guojun Wu, 2006. "Stock Market Manipulations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1915-1954, July.
    10. Adam Hayes, 2015. "A Cost of Production Model for Bitcoin," Working Papers 1505, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    2. Neil Gandal & J. T. Hamrick & Tyler Moore & Marie Vasek, 2021. "The rise and fall of cryptocurrency coins and tokens," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 981-1014, December.
    3. Almaqableh, Laith & Reddy, Krishna & Pereira, Vijay & Ramiah, Vikash & Wallace, Damien & Francisco Veron, Jose, 2022. "An investigative study of links between terrorist attacks and cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 177-188.
    4. Nino Antulov-Fantulin & Dijana Tolic & Matija Piskorec & Zhang Ce & Irena Vodenska, 2018. "Inferring short-term volatility indicators from Bitcoin blockchain," Papers 1809.07856, arXiv.org.
    5. Irena Barjav{s}i'c & Nino Antulov-Fantulin, 2020. "Time-varying volatility in Bitcoin market and information flow at minute-level frequency," Papers 2004.00550, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    6. Hanna Halaburda & Guillaume Haeringer & Joshua Gans & Neil Gandal, 2022. "The Microeconomics of Cryptocurrencies," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 971-1013, September.
    7. White, Reilly & Marinakis, Yorgos & Islam, Nazrul & Walsh, Steven, 2020. "Is Bitcoin a currency, a technology-based product, or something else?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Rouhi, Farhang & Mukherjee, Arghya & Feder, Amir & Moore, Tyler & Vasek, Marie, 2018. "The Economics of Cryptocurrency Pump and Dump Schemes," CEPR Discussion Papers 13404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Aniruddha Dutta & Saket Kumar & Meheli Basu, 2020. "A Gated Recurrent Unit Approach to Bitcoin Price Prediction," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, February.
    10. M. Eren Akbiyik & Mert Erkul & Killian Kaempf & Vaiva Vasiliauskaite & Nino Antulov-Fantulin, 2021. "Ask "Who", Not "What": Bitcoin Volatility Forecasting with Twitter Data," Papers 2110.14317, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    11. Daniela Balutel & Christopher Henry & Jorge Vásquez & Marcel Voia, 2022. "Bitcoin adoption and beliefs in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 1729-1761, November.
    12. Luca Marchiori, 2018. "Monetary theory reversed: Virtual currency issuance and miners’ remuneration," BCL working papers 115, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    13. Andrew Detzel & Hong Liu & Jack Strauss & Guofu Zhou & Yingzi Zhu, 2021. "Learning and predictability via technical analysis: Evidence from bitcoin and stocks with hard‐to‐value fundamentals," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(1), pages 107-137, March.
    14. Laura Alessandretti & Abeer ElBahrawy & Luca Maria Aiello & Andrea Baronchelli, 2018. "Anticipating Cryptocurrency Prices Using Machine Learning," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-16, November.
    15. Baumöhl, Eduard, 2019. "Are cryptocurrencies connected to forex? A quantile cross-spectral approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 363-372.
    16. Marchiori, Luca, 2021. "Monetary theory reversed: Virtual currency issuance and the inflation tax," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    17. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Network causality structures among Bitcoin and other financial assets: A directed acyclic graph approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 203-213.
    18. Ahmed M. Khedr & Ifra Arif & Pravija Raj P V & Magdi El‐Bannany & Saadat M. Alhashmi & Meenu Sreedharan, 2021. "Cryptocurrency price prediction using traditional statistical and machine‐learning techniques: A survey," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 3-34, January.
    19. Anil Savio Kavuri & Alistair Milne, 2019. "FinTech and the future of financial services: What are the research gaps?," CAMA Working Papers 2019-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Schilling, Linda & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Some simple bitcoin economics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 16-26.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Price manipulation; Cryptocurrencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12061. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.