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Anticipating Cryptocurrency Prices Using Machine Learning

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  • Laura Alessandretti
  • Abeer ElBahrawy
  • Luca Maria Aiello
  • Andrea Baronchelli

Abstract

Machine learning and AI-assisted trading have attracted growing interest for the past few years. Here, we use this approach to test the hypothesis that the inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market can be exploited to generate abnormal profits. We analyse daily data for cryptocurrencies for the period between Nov. 2015 and Apr. 2018. We show that simple trading strategies assisted by state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms outperform standard benchmarks. Our results show that nontrivial, but ultimately simple, algorithmic mechanisms can help anticipate the short-term evolution of the cryptocurrency market.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Alessandretti & Abeer ElBahrawy & Luca Maria Aiello & Andrea Baronchelli, 2018. "Anticipating Cryptocurrency Prices Using Machine Learning," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-16, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:complx:8983590
    DOI: 10.1155/2018/8983590
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chowdhury, Reaz & Rahman, M. Arifur & Rahman, M. Sohel & Mahdy, M.R.C., 2020. "An approach to predict and forecast the price of constituents and index of cryptocurrency using machine learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    3. Andrés García-Medina & Graciela González Farías, 2020. "Transfer entropy as a variable selection methodology of cryptocurrencies in the framework of a high dimensional predictive model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, January.
    4. Jacopo Fior & Luca Cagliero & Paolo Garza, 2022. "Leveraging Explainable AI to Support Cryptocurrency Investors," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, August.
    5. Abubakr Naeem, Muhammad & Iqbal, Najaf & Lucey, Brian M. & Karim, Sitara, 2022. "Good versus bad information transmission in the cryptocurrency market: Evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Sanjib Kumar Nayak & Sarat Chandra Nayak & Subhranginee Das, 2021. "Modeling and Forecasting Cryptocurrency Closing Prices with Rao Algorithm-Based Artificial Neural Networks: A Machine Learning Approach," FinTech, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Sevcan Uzun & Ahmet Sensoy & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2023. "Jump forecasting in foreign exchange markets: A high‐frequency analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 578-624, April.
    8. D’Amato, Valeria & Levantesi, Susanna & Piscopo, Gabriella, 2022. "Deep learning in predicting cryptocurrency volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 596(C).
    9. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Ma, Chao-Qun & Kong, Xiao-Lin & Baltas, Konstantinos & Zureigat, Qasim, 2022. "Past, present, and future of the application of machine learning in cryptocurrency research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    10. Suhwan Ji & Jongmin Kim & Hyeonseung Im, 2019. "A Comparative Study of Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Deep Learning," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-20, September.
    11. Isabela Ruiz Roque da Silva & Eli Hadad Junior & Pedro Paulo Balbi, 2022. "Cryptocurrencies trading algorithms: A review," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1661-1668, December.
    12. Fan Fang & Carmine Ventre & Michail Basios & Leslie Kanthan & Lingbo Li & David Martinez-Regoband & Fan Wu, 2020. "Cryptocurrency Trading: A Comprehensive Survey," Papers 2003.11352, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    13. Dorien Herremans & Kah Wee Low, 2022. "Forecasting Bitcoin volatility spikes from whale transactions and CryptoQuant data using Synthesizer Transformer models," Papers 2211.08281, arXiv.org.
    14. Abeer ElBahrawy & Laura Alessandretti & Andrea Baronchelli, 2019. "Wikipedia and Digital Currencies: Interplay Between Collective Attention and Market Performance," Papers 1902.04517, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    15. Wang, Yaqi & Wang, Chunfeng & Sensoy, Ahmet & Yao, Shouyu & Cheng, Feiyang, 2022. "Can investors’ informed trading predict cryptocurrency returns? Evidence from machine learning," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Gil Cohen, 2022. "Algorithmic Trading and Financial Forecasting Using Advanced Artificial Intelligence Methodologies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(18), pages 1-13, September.
    17. Silvia Bartolucci & Fabio Caccioli & Pierpaolo Vivo, 2019. "A percolation model for the emergence of the Bitcoin Lightning Network," Papers 1912.03556, arXiv.org.
    18. J. Gavin & M. Crane, 2021. "Community Detection in Cryptocurrencies with Potential Applications to Portfolio Diversification," Papers 2108.09763, arXiv.org.
    19. Ze Shen & Qing Wan & David J. Leatham, 2021. "Bitcoin Return Volatility Forecasting: A Comparative Study between GARCH and RNN," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, July.
    20. Carolina E S Mattsson & Teodoro Criscione & Frank W Takes, 2022. "Circulation of a digital community currency," Papers 2207.08941, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    21. Ahmed M. Khedr & Ifra Arif & Pravija Raj P V & Magdi El‐Bannany & Saadat M. Alhashmi & Meenu Sreedharan, 2021. "Cryptocurrency price prediction using traditional statistical and machine‐learning techniques: A survey," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 3-34, January.
    22. Duygu Ider & Stefan Lessmann, 2022. "Forecasting Cryptocurrency Returns from Sentiment Signals: An Analysis of BERT Classifiers and Weak Supervision," Papers 2204.05781, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
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