What can we tell about monetary policy synchronization and interdependence over the 2007-2009 global financial crisis?
AbstractWe investigate the synchronization and nonlinear adjustment dynamics of short-term interest rates for France, the UK and the US using the bi-directional feedback measures proposed by Geweke (1982) and appropriate smooth transition error-correction models (STECM). We find strong evidence of continual increases in bilateral synchroni-zation of these rates from 2005 to 2009 as well as of their lead-lag causal interactions with a slight dominance of the US rate. Our results also indicate that short-term interest rates converge towards a common long-run equilibrium in a nonlinear manner and their time dynamics exhibit regime-switching behavior.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00507826.
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00507826/en/
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
Other versions of this item:
- Arouri, Mohamed & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "What can we tell about monetary policy synchronization and interdependence over the 2007–2009 global financial crisis?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 175-187.
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001.
"Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction Of Monetary Policy To The Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669, May.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 8350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000.
"Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, April.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, April.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992.
9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005.
"What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, 06.
- Ben Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Staff Reports 174, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," NBER Working Papers 10402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002.
"Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
- Merih Uctum, 1996.
"European integration and asymmetry in the EMS,"
9605, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Dixit, A., 1988.
"Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty,"
91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Fredj Jawadi & Georges Prat, 2009.
"Nonlinear Stock Price Adjustment in the G7 Countries,"
EconomiX Working Papers
2009-21, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Georges Prat & Fredj Jawadi, 2007. "Nonlinear stock prices adjustment in the G7 countries," Working Papers halshs-00172896, HAL.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2002. "Is the international propagation of financial shocks non-linear?: Evidence from the ERM," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 231-246, June.
- Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2005.
"Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?,"
0502001, EconWPA, revised 01 Feb 2005.
- Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2007. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 667-688, 03.
- Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997.
"Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Michael-Nobay-Peel ESTAR models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00113, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Di Giorgio, Giorgio & Rotondi, Zeno, 2011. "Financial stability, interest-rate smoothing and equilibrium determinacy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, January.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Al Awad, Mouawiya & Goodwin, Barry K., 1998. "Dynamic linkages among real interest rates in international capital markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 881-907, December.
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
- George A. Kahn & Scott Benolkin, 2007. "The role of money in monetary policy: why do the Fed and ECB see it so differently?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-36.
- Fredj Jawadi & Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2009. "Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non-Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 753-783.
- Douglas, Christopher C. & Kolar, Marek, 2009. "Capturing the time dynamics of central bank intervention," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 950-968, December.
- Chiara Scotti, 2006. "A bivariate model of Fed and ECB main policy rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 875, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
- Wang, Zijun & Yang, Jian & Li, Qi, 2007. "Interest rate linkages in the Eurocurrency market: Contemporaneous and out-of-sample Granger causality tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 86-103, February.
- Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
- Ying Liu, 2001. "Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model," Working Papers 01-23, Bank of Canada.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Stefano Eusepi, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and the Liquidity Trap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2-3), pages 373-397, 03.
- Howitt, Peter, 2012. "What have central bankers learned from modern macroeconomic theory?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 11-22.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.