Equilibrium exchange rate determination and multiple structural changes
AbstractThe large appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar in the 1980s stimulated an important debate on the usefulness of unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks. In this paper, we propose a simple model to describe the evolution of the real exchange rate. We then propose a more general smooth transition (STR) function than has hitherto been employed, which is able to capture structural changes along the (long-run) equilibrium path, and show that this is consistent with our economic model. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment between regimes and allows for under- and/or over-valued exchange rate adjustments. Using monthly and quarterly data for up to twenty OECD countries, we apply our methodology to investigate the univariate time series properties of CPI-based real exchange rates with both the U.S. dollar and German mark as the numeraire currencies. The empirical results show that, for more than half of the quarterly series, the evidence in favour of the stationarity of the real exchange rate was clearer in the sub-sample period post-1980.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2010_14.
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Unit root tests; structural breaks; purchasing power parity;
Other versions of this item:
- Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2013. "Equilibrium exchange rate determination and multiple structural changes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 52-66.
- Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2010. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate Determination and Multiple Structural Changes," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-39, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-06-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-06-04 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2010-06-04 (Econometrics)
- NEP-MON-2010-06-04 (Monetary Economics)
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