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Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling With the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator(MITTS) : Uses and Extensions

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  • John Creedy
  • Guyonne Kalb

Abstract

This paper describes microsimulation modelling in non-technical terms; and it explains what can be achieved with microsimulation modelling in general, and the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS) in particular. The focus is on behavioural microsimulation modelling, which takes individuals’ labour supply responses into account when analysing tax and transfer reforms. Microsimulation models are built to replicate closely the considerable degree of heterogeneity observed in the population. Several examples of recent uses of MITTS are given and briefly described. In addition, one worked-out example is presented to illustrate some of the features and typical outputs of MITTS. Given the relatively recent development of behavioural microsimulation models, there are several opportunities for further extensions. For example, it would be valuable to allow for the demand side of labour, indicating whether new labour force participants are likely to find work; or to allow for life-cycle dynamics, which are important to deal with population-ageing issues or with female labour force participation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 932.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:932

Note: This paper has now been published in: Creedy, J. and Kalb, G. (2005) Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling for Tax Policy Analysis in Australia: Experience and Prospects, Australian Journal of Labour Economics, 8, no.1, pp. 73-110.
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Postal: Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 5th Floor, Economics and Commerce Building, Victoria, 3010, Australia
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Web page: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au
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References

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  1. John Creedy & Alan Duncan, 2001. "Aggregating labour supply and feedback effects in microsimulation," IFS Working Papers W01/24, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  2. Lixin Cai & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Accounting For Population Ageing In Tax Microsimulation Modelling By Survey Reweighting ," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 18-37, 03.
  3. Richard Blundell & Thomas MaCurdy, 1998. "Labour supply: a review of alternative approaches," IFS Working Papers W98/18, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  4. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "Income Distribution in Discrete Hours Behavioural Microsimulation Models: An Illustration of the Labour Supply and Distributional Effects of Social Transfers," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n23, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
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  7. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Julian McCrae & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The labour market impact of the working families’ tax credit," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 75-103, March.
  8. Creedy, J. & Van de Ven, J., 1998. "The Redistributive Effect of Selected Australian Taxes and Transfers on Annual and Lifetime Inequality," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 658, The University of Melbourne.
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  11. Richard Blundell & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2004. "Has 'In-Work' Benefit Reform Helped the Labor Market?," NBER Chapters, in: Seeking a Premier Economy: The Economic Effects of British Economic Reforms, 1980-2000, pages 411-460 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Imrohoroglu, Ayse, 1992. "The welfare cost of inflation under imperfect insurance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 79-91, January.
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  15. Creedy, John & van de Ven, Justin, 2001. "Decomposing Redistributive Effects of Taxes and Transfers in Australia: Annual and Lifetime Measures," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 185-98, June.
  16. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1993. "Uninsured idiosyncratic risk and aggregate saving," Working Papers 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  17. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2005. "Confidence Intervals for Policy Reforms in Behavioural Tax Microsimulation Modelling," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 936, The University of Melbourne.
  18. Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "Effects of the Australian New Tax System on Government Expenditure With and Without Behavioural Changes," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  19. Apps, Patricia & Savage, Elizabeth, 1989. "Labour supply, welfare rankings and the measurement of inequality," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 335-364, August.
  20. Blundell, Richard William & Ham, John & Meghir, Costas, 1987. "Unemployment and Female Labour Supply," CEPR Discussion Papers 149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Atkinson, M E & Creedy, John & Knox, D M, 1996. "Alternative Retirement Income Strategies: A Cohort Analysis of Lifetime Redistribution," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(217), pages 97-106, June.
  22. Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2002. "Estimation of Wage Equations in Australia: Allowing for Censored Observations of Labour Supply," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n08, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  23. Guyonne Kalb, 2002. "Estimation of Labour Supply Models for Four Separate Groups in the Australian Population," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n24, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  24. Klevmarken, N. A., 1997. "Modelling Behavioural Response in EUROMOD," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9720, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  25. John Creedy & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "The Role of the Unit of Analysis in Tax Policy Reform Evaluations," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n28, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  26. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1994. "Tax reform and welfare measurement: do we need demand system estimation?," IFS Working Papers W94/11, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  27. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December.
  28. Duncan, Alan & Giles, Christopher, 1996. "Labour Supply Incentives and Recent Family Credit Reforms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 142-55, January.
  29. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2003. "Flattening the Effective Marginal Tax Rate Structure in Australia: Policy Simulations Using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(2), pages 156-172.
  30. Denise J. Doiron, 2004. "Welfare Reform and the Labour Supply of Lone Parents in Australia: A Natural Experiment Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 157-176, 06.
  31. Cathal O'Donoghue, 2001. "Dynamic Microsimulation: A Methodological Survey," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 4(2), December.
  32. Cameron, Lisa & Creedy, John, 1995. "Indirect Tax Exemptions and the Distribution of Lifetime Income: A Simulation Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(212), pages 77-87, March.
  33. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2001. "The Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS)," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  34. Ebert, Udo, 1997. "Social Welfare When Needs Differ: An Axiomatic Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(254), pages 233-44, May.
  35. Robert A. Moffitt, 2003. "Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moff03-1, October.
  36. Callan, Tim, 2000. "Taxes, Transfers and Labour Market Responses: What can Microsimulation tell us?," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS36.
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