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Aggregating labour supply and feedback effects in microsimulation

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  • John Creedy
  • Alan Duncan

    ()
    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and NATSEM, University of Canberra)

Abstract

This paper extends behavioural microsimulation modelling so that third round effects of a policy change can be simulated. The first round effects relate to fixed hours of work, while second round effects allow for changes in desired hours of work at unchanged wages. These allow for endogenous changes to the distribution of wage rates resulting from the labour supply responses to tax changes. This is achieved using the concept of an aggregate ѳupply response scheduleҬ which identifies the extent to which average labour supply responds to a proportional change in wage rates. The third round effect is obtained after re-running a microsimulation model with a suitable modification to individuals' wage rates. The method is illustrated using the MITTS behavioural microsimulation model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series IFS Working Papers with number W01/24.

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Length: 27 pp
Date of creation: Nov 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:01/24

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  1. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert, 1998. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 553-89, August.
  2. Creedy, John & Duncan, Alan, 2002. " Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-39, February.
  3. Ashenfelter, Orley, 1980. "Unemployment as Disequilibrium in a Model of Aggregate Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(3), pages 547-64, April.
  4. Joseph Altonji, 1984. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: Evidence from Micro Data," Working Papers 562, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-54, Sept./Oct.
  6. Heckman, James J, 1993. "What Has Been Learned about Labor Supply in the Past Twenty Years?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 116-21, May.
  7. Kennan, John, 1988. "An Econometric Analysis of Fluctuations in Aggregate Labor Supply and Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 317-33, March.
  8. Bergmann, Barbara R, 1990. "Micro-to-Macro Simulation: A Primer with a Labor Market Example," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 99-116, Winter.
  9. Andrew Dilnot & Alan Duncan, 1992. "Lone mothers, family credit and paid work," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, February.
  10. Muellbauer, John N J, 1981. "Linear Aggregation in Neoclassical Labour Supply," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 21-36, January.
  11. Alogoskoufis, George S, 1987. "On Intertemporal Substitution and Aggregate Labor Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 938-60, October.
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