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Aggregating Labour Supply and Feedback Effects in Microsimulation

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  • John Creedy

    ()
    (The University of Melbourne)

  • Alan Duncan

    (University of Nottingham)

Abstract

This paper explores an extention of behavioural microsimulation modelling so that third round effects of a policy change can be simulated. The first round effects relate to fixed hours of work, while second round effects allow for changes in desired hours of work at unchanged wages. Third round effects allow for endogenous changes to the distribution of wage rates resulting from the labour supply responses to tax changes. This is achieved using the concept of an aggregate 'supply response schedule', which identifies the extent to which average labour supply responds to tax changes. This is achieved using the concept of an aggregate labour supply responds to a proportional change in wage rates. The third round effect is obtained after re-running a micro simulation model with a suitable modification to individuials' wage rates. The method is illustrated using the MITTS behavioural microsimulation model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School in its journal Australian Journal of Labour Economics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 277-290

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Handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:8:y:2005:i:3:p:277-290

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Postal: GPO Box U1987, Perth WA 6845
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Web page: http://business.curtin.edu.au/research/publications/journals/ajle/
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Keywords: Time Allocation and Labor Supply (hours of work; part-time employment; temporary workers; work sharing; absenteeism; quits; work-life balance) General Aggregative Models; Forecasting and Simulation;

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References

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  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-54, Sept./Oct.
  2. Ashenfelter, Orley, 1980. "Unemployment as Disequilibrium in a Model of Aggregate Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(3), pages 547-64, April.
  3. M. Keane & R. Mofitt, 1995. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," Working Papers 95-4, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  4. Heckman, James J, 1993. "What Has Been Learned about Labor Supply in the Past Twenty Years?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 116-21, May.
  5. Alogoskoufis, George S, 1987. "On Intertemporal Substitution and Aggregate Labor Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 938-60, October.
  6. Kennan, John, 1988. "An Econometric Analysis of Fluctuations in Aggregate Labor Supply and Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 317-33, March.
  7. Joseph Altonji, 1984. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: Evidence from Micro Data," Working Papers 562, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  8. Andrew Dilnot & Alan Duncan, 1992. "Lone mothers, family credit and paid work," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, February.
  9. Creedy, John & Duncan, Alan, 2002. " Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-39, February.
  10. Bergmann, Barbara R, 1990. "Micro-to-Macro Simulation: A Primer with a Labor Market Example," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 99-116, Winter.
  11. Muellbauer, John N J, 1981. "Linear Aggregation in Neoclassical Labour Supply," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 21-36, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ugo Colombine, 2013. "A new equilibrium simulation procedure with discrete choice models," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(3), pages 25-49.
  2. Tim Callan & A. Van Soest & John R. Walsh, 2007. "Tax Structure and Female Labour Market Participation: Evidence from Ireland," Papers WP208, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. Colombino, Ugo, 2012. "Equilibrium Simulation with Microeconometric Models: A New Procedure with an Application to Income Support Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 6679, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Thor O. Thoresen & Zhiyang Jia & Peter J. Lambert, 2013. "Distributional benchmarking in tax policy evaluations," Discussion Papers 765, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  5. repec:ese:emodwp:em5-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling for Tax Policy Analysis in Australia: Experience and Prospects," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 73-110, March.
  7. Colombino Ugo, 2011. "Designing a universal income support mechanism for Italy.An exploratory tour," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201112, University of Turin.
  8. Colombino, Ugo & Narazani, Edlira, 2012. "What's Best for Women: Gender Based Taxation, Wage Subsidies or Basic Income?," IZA Discussion Papers 6828, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. John Freebairn & Peter Dawkins, 2003. "Unemployment Policy: Lessons from Economic Analysis," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  10. Edlira Narazani, 2011. "Evidences on Household Labour Supply when Labour Demand is not Perfectly Elastic Keywords: Labour Supply, Labour Demand, Equilibrium," CHILD Working Papers wp22_11, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
  11. Colombino, Ugo & Narazani, Edlira, 2014. "Closing the Gender Gap: Gender Based Taxation, Wage Subsidies or Basic Income?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201412, University of Turin.
  12. Colombino, Ugo, 2011. "Five Issues in the Design of Income Support Mechanisms: The Case of Italy," IZA Discussion Papers 6059, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Thor O. Thoresen & Jørgen Aasness & Zhiyang Jia, 2008. "More realistic estimates of revenue changes from tax cuts," Discussion Papers 545, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  14. Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2010. "Accounting for Labor Demand Effects in Structural Labor Supply Models," IZA Discussion Papers 5350, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. repec:ese:emodwp:em10-13 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Peter Haan & Viktor Steiner, 2004. "Distributional and Fiscal Effects of the German Tax Reform 2000: A Behavioral Microsimulation Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 419, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  17. Peichl, Andreas & Schneider, Hilmar & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2010. "Documentation IZAΨMOD: The IZA Policy SImulation MODel," IZA Discussion Papers 4865, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  18. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling With the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator(MITTS) : Uses and Extensions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 932, The University of Melbourne.

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