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Aggregating Labour Supply and Feedback Effects in Microsimulation

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  • John Creedy

    () (The University of Melbourne)

  • Alan Duncan

    (University of Nottingham)

Abstract

This paper explores an extention of behavioural microsimulation modelling so that third round effects of a policy change can be simulated. The first round effects relate to fixed hours of work, while second round effects allow for changes in desired hours of work at unchanged wages. Third round effects allow for endogenous changes to the distribution of wage rates resulting from the labour supply responses to tax changes. This is achieved using the concept of an aggregate 'supply response schedule', which identifies the extent to which average labour supply responds to tax changes. This is achieved using the concept of an aggregate labour supply responds to a proportional change in wage rates. The third round effect is obtained after re-running a micro simulation model with a suitable modification to individuials' wage rates. The method is illustrated using the MITTS behavioural microsimulation model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The Centre for Labour Market Research (CLMR), Curtin Business School in its journal Australian Journal of Labour Economics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 277-290

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Handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:8:y:2005:i:3:p:277-290

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Web page: http://www.business.curtin.edu.au/business/research/journals-published-by-cbs/australian-journal-of-labour-economics

Related research

Keywords: Time Allocation and Labor Supply (hours of work; part-time employment; temporary workers; work sharing; absenteeism; quits; work-life balance) General Aggregative Models; Forecasting and Simulation;

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References

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  1. Altonji, Joseph G, 1986. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages S176-S215, June.
  2. Orley Ashenfelter, 1977. "Unemployment as Disequilibrium in a Model of Aggregate Labor Supply," Working Papers 484, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  3. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert, 1998. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 553-89, August.
  4. Andrew Dilnot & Alan Duncan, 1992. "Lone mothers, family credit and paid work," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, February.
  5. Creedy, John & Duncan, Alan, 2002. " Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-39, February.
  6. Muellbauer, John N J, 1981. "Linear Aggregation in Neoclassical Labour Supply," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 21-36, January.
  7. Kennan, John, 1988. "An Econometric Analysis of Fluctuations in Aggregate Labor Supply and Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 317-33, March.
  8. Bergmann, Barbara R, 1990. "Micro-to-Macro Simulation: A Primer with a Labor Market Example," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 99-116, Winter.
  9. Heckman, James J, 1993. "What Has Been Learned about Labor Supply in the Past Twenty Years?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 116-21, May.
  10. Alogoskoufis, George S, 1987. "On Intertemporal Substitution and Aggregate Labor Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 938-60, October.
  11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-54, Sept./Oct.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ugo Colombino, 2011. "Five issues in the design of income support mechanisms. The case of Italy," CHILD Working Papers wp21_11, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
  2. Edlira Narazani, 2011. "Evidences on Household Labour Supply when Labour Demand is not Perfectly Elastic Keywords: Labour Supply, Labour Demand, Equilibrium," CHILD Working Papers wp22_11, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
  3. Peichl, Andreas & Schneider, Hilmar & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2010. "Documentation IZAΨMOD: The IZA Policy SImulation MODel," IZA Discussion Papers 4865, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Callan, Tim & van Soest, Arthur & Walsh, John R., 2007. "Tax Structure and Female Labour Market Participation: Evidence from Ireland," IZA Discussion Papers 3090, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling With the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator(MITTS) : Uses and Extensions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 932, The University of Melbourne.
  6. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling for Tax Policy Analysis in Australia: Experience and Prospects," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), The Centre for Labour Market Research (CLMR), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 73-110, March.
  7. Colombino Ugo, 2011. "Designing a universal income support mechanism for Italy.An exploratory tour," Department of Economics Working Papers 201112, University of Turin.
  8. Colombino Ugo, 2012. "Equilibrium simulation with microeconometric models. A new procedure with an application to income support policies," Department of Economics Working Papers 201209, University of Turin.
  9. Thor O. Thoresen & Jørgen Aasness & Zhiyang Jia, 2008. "More realistic estimates of revenue changes from tax cuts," Discussion Papers 545, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  10. Peter Haan & Viktor Steiner, 2004. "Distributional and Fiscal Effects of the German Tax Reform 2000: A Behavioral Microsimulation Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 419, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  11. repec:ese:emodwp:em5-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Colombino, Ugo & Narazani, Edlira, 2012. "What's Best for Women: Gender Based Taxation, Wage Subsidies or Basic Income?," IZA Discussion Papers 6828, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. John Freebairn & Peter Dawkins, 2003. "Unemployment Policy: Lessons from Economic Analysis," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

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